Dairy review of the week – prices, events and forecasts [268th Edition of DAIRY Newsletter]

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Welcome back to our newsletter!

In the latest edition of our newsletter, we take a look at current price movements and trends in the dairy industry on the European and North American market. You will find an overview of the most important dairy news. In addition, we discuss important developments that may affect the market in the near future. We invite you to read through the individual sections to get a complete picture of the current dairy market situation.

Milk powder

The market for skimmed milk powder (SMP) for food use has seen further growth, with prices now approaching 2400 EUR/MT and Q3 futures above 2500 EUR/MT. Optimism in the market persists, as evidenced by valuations for Q4 reaching as high as 2695 EUR/MT. The upward trend is clearly visible.

Prices for SMP for feed in wholesale transactions remain stable, currently at around 2420 EUR/MT. For Q2 deliveries, prices are hovering around 2425-2450 EUR/MT, with a slight increase to around 2450 EUR/MT expected in Q3.

Cheese

Gouda cheese prices remain in the range of 4200-4300 EUR/MT, with increasing interest in contracts for June and Q3. The lack of storage pressure allows producers to maintain a relatively stable price level. Domestic demand in the EU remains strong.

For emmental cheese, there is a slight decrease in trade activity. Prices have fallen to around 5000 EUR/MT. The cheddar cheese market is under pressure – surpluses from Ireland and the UK are limiting the potential for price increases. The current level is around 4520 EUR/MT. Exports to the US are limited due to low US prices and weaker domestic consumption.

Prices for mozzarella fluctuate between 4100-4200 EUR/MT, depending on the producer and volume of supply. Demand is stable and consumers are slowly returning to the market after a period of greater purchasing caution.

Fats

After earlier declines, the butter market appears to be stabilising, with block butter prices holding in the  7100-7200 EUR/MT range. The lowest price level has probably been reached. It is worth noting that cheap supplies from Ukraine have already been sold out, which changes the supply dynamics in the EU.

The AMF market remains relatively stable, although upward adjustments cannot be ruled out given the current fundamentals.

Fluids

Cream prices have risen slightly – the current market level is 7900-8000 EUR/MT. With relatively favourable weather conditions and improving production margins, further increases are possible in the coming weeks.

The price of skimmed milk concentrate (SMC) remains at 1600-1650 EUR/MT FCA, mainly for raw material from Germany. Raw milk availability remains high, although in some countries, such as France, the seasonal peak has already passed.

Spot milk prices in Europe show a slight downward trend. Although milk production remains seasonally high, signs of a peak are beginning to appear in Germany and France.

Whey powder

Whey powder (SWP) for food use remains relatively stable, with current prices fluctuating between 975-995 EUR/MT. Asian demand continues to play a supportive role.

Whey powder for feed purposes remains stable. In DAP NL wholesale trading, May prices remain around 860 EUR/MT, while Q3 contracts are in the 880-900 EUR/MT range. The market is quiet and activity is limited.

In Europe, after several weeks of rising WPC80 prices, we are now seeing stabilisation, while WPI is experiencing a slight correction and a moderate price decline.

What’s new?

North America

In the US, demand for dairy components such as fat and protein, used to make cheese and butter, among other products, is growing, while liquid milk consumption has been declining since the 1970s. Analysts, including Ben Laine, point out that traditional milk production rates no longer reflect the real health of the industry. Despite the decline in milk volumes, its fat content has increased from 3.95% (2020) to 4.22% (2024), supporting exports and the production of high-margin products. Around 20% of milk goes abroad, mainly in the form of skimmed ingredients.

Europe

on 20 May 2025, UK authorities confirmed a single case of bovine atypical spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) on a farm in Essex County. The animal showed signs of the disease, was humanely slaughtered and did not enter the food chain. Atypical BSE is a rare, non-contagious disease that occurs spontaneously in cattle and differs from classical BSE associated with contaminated feed. The Chief Veterinary Officer, Christine Middlemiss, highlighted the effectiveness of the UK’s animal disease surveillance and control system.