![Changes in the dairy market – what to look out for ahead of Q3 [272nd Edition of the DAIRY Newsletter]](https://foodcom.pl/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Newsletter_Dairy-1520x760.jpg "Changes in the dairy market – what to look out for ahead of Q3 [272nd Edition of the DAIRY Newsletter]")
- Prices of milk powder (SMP) are rising, and product availability remains limited.
- The cheese market is stable, but most volumes for Q3 have already been contracted.
- Butter and cream are becoming more expensive due to high fat costs and summer weather.
- The whey and protein market remains stable, with most contracts already secured.
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As we approach the third quarter, dairy markets across Europe remain stable, with the first contracts already in place. Ongoing supply constraints, seasonal shifts in production and rising production costs continue to affect the prices of powders, cheeses, fats and liquids.
In this edition, we present the latest spot prices, forward forecasts and market analysis on key product categories to help you prepare for the new quarter.
Scroll down for detailed market data and forecasts.
Milk powder
The SMP market remains stable and prices continue to show a slight upward trend. Spot transactions are currently in the 2400-2450 EUR/MT range, with product availability remaining limited and delivery times short. Demand in the European market is moderate, with bids for Q3 remaining in the range of 2500-2550 EUR/MT. Upward pressure on prices is also supported by the situation in international markets, where recent transactions indicate a strengthening of sentiment and increased confidence among sellers.
The feed segment is showing similar dynamics, with higher prices observed in both the standard and non-standard product categories. Standard bulk product is trading at 2450 EUR/MT, with offers for Q3 (DAP NL) reaching 2470 EUR/MT. Trading volumes are limited, but there are indications of July deliveries at 2460 EUR/MT DAP NL. This suggests some interest in forward buying and growing demand for lower quality alternatives ahead of seasonal production changes.
Cheese
The mature cheese market remains stable, supported by strong demand and relatively limited supply. Gouda and edam are selling at around 4350 EUR/MT, with most volumes for Q3 already secured. Sellers are maintaining stable forward prices, which has slowed new business as buyers are rejecting the premium.
The price of emmental cheese is around 5000-5100 EUR/MT. Consumption remains high and production capacity is fully utilised, resulting in limited availability and stable prices.
Cheddar remains at around 4600-4700 EUR/MT. The market has stabilised after a short rise; stocks remain high due to high milk production at the start of the season and exports are limited. Buyers have mostly covered demand and trade is quiet.
The price of mozzarella is holding steady at around 4300 EUR/MT, supported by seasonal demand and recent purchases in Q3. The market has contracted more than expected, maintaining upward pressure on prices.
The price of cagliata increased to 4500 EUR/MT, reflecting greater interest from industrial buyers, particularly in southern markets.
Fats
The butter market remains in recovery. Prices have stabilised and currently stand at 7300-7400 EUR/MT, with 10 KG German blocks reaching prices as high as 7450 EUR/MT. This trend is supported by high cream costs and reduced milk fat content due to warm weather. Buyer activity reflects a cautious approach in the face of expectations of further increases.
Liquids
The cream market continues to rise, with prices reaching 8750 EUR/MT, approaching butter levels. Seasonally lower milk fat yields and expected heat waves may further reduce supply in the coming weeks.
SMC prices are also on an upward trend. SMC prices are currently around 2050 EUR/MT FCA in Germany and France.
Raw milk markets are also firming up, with prices above 510 EUR/MT and availability continuing to fall week by week.
Whey powder
Prices for whey powder for consumption remain stable and are currently between 1030 and 1100 EUR/MT. The product for feed has also stabilised at 850 EUR/MT and offers for Q3 (DAP NL) are quoted in the range of 920-940 EUR/MT.
Whey concentrate remains below 350 EUR/MT FCA, although limited drying capacity continues to limit availability. The WPC80 market remains above 12,000 EUR/MT, with most volumes for Q3 already secured.
Whey protein isolate prices are stable at 20,000 EUR/MT, although demand has weakened due to previous contracts and existing customer stocks.
The permeate market is stable with prices around 780-820 EUR/MT and supply is not currently an issue. The price of lactose remains high at 1,300-1350 EUR/MT, but is showing signs of stabilisation as most volumes for the third quarter have already been covered.
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