What’s up? Food industry news! [January 2025]

Food markets enter the new year with clear trends shaping global prices and trade. Cocoa and coffee are struggling with supply pressures and volatile demand, while dairy markets in Europe are seeing cheese and cream prices rise, driven by stable consumer interest. Meanwhile, trade policies, such as planned tariffs in the US, and changing import patterns, such as a decline in palm oil purchases in India, point to significant changes in global supply chains.

Take a look at the latest trends that are shaping the food industry!

Cocoa

Cocoa prices remain under pressure due to concerns about falling demand caused by high raw material costs. Nevertheless, declining global cocoa stocks are limiting losses. Stocks monitored by ICE at US ports have reached 20-year lows. At the same time, exports from Côte d’Ivoire, despite a 27% y/y increase in the current marketing year, are slowing compared to previous levels. Deteriorating growing conditions in West Africa, including the effects of dry and dusty Harmattan winds, may further constrain supply. Looking ahead, the cocoa deficit estimated by the International Cocoa Association (ICCO) at 478,000 tonnes in 2023/24 is the largest shortfall in more than 60 years.

Coffee

The coffee market is facing downward pressure on prices, particularly for robusta, which has reached a two-week low. This has been influenced by rising stocks and increased coffee exports from Vietnam. Arabica, on the other hand, has gained in value thanks to concerns about the effects of the drought in Brazil, which significantly limits the potential for future harvests. Forecasts point to further arabica deficits in the coming years, sustaining tensions in the market despite record global production for the 2023/24 season. These opposing forces create a mixed picture for a market that remains sensitive to weather conditions and changes in supply.

Cheese

The start of the year in the European cheese market brings clear price rises. Products such as gouda and mozzarella have seen a significant improvement, supported by rising demand and optimistic market sentiment. Stocks are well controlled, allowing producers to maintain a stable price position. Despite a slight drop in emmental prices, interest in this cheese continues to outstrip availability, giving it an edge over other products. Cagliata is gaining popularity with stable prices and cheddar reflects the general upward trend in the market. Forecasts suggest a stabilisation of prices in the long term as production adjusts to demand.

Cream

Cream prices have risen in recent days, driven by strong demand in both the domestic and export markets. Although the additional supply resulting from increased milk production has brought some relief to buyers, it has not been sufficient to stem further price increases. Producers are keeping a close eye on the balance between demand and supply, expecting the current price situation to remain stable in the near term.

NEWS

North America

Donald Trump plans to revamp global trade once again with a 10 per cent universal tariff on all imports into the US and a 60 per cent tariff on goods from China. While earlier tariffs benefited some sectors, such as steel and aluminium, they simultaneously triggered trade retaliation and increased costs for other industries. Despite promises to reduce the national debt, tariff revenues have had a limited impact on the growing federal deficit. The new policy has the potential to once again disrupt global supply chains and trade relationships.

Africa

Military authorities in Côte d’Ivoire have suspended five officials from the town of Sipilou, accused of complicity in cocoa smuggling to neighbouring countries such as Guinea and Liberia. Between 50,000 and 75,000 tonnes of cocoa have been illegally exported since October 2024, allowing smugglers to obtain higher prices abroad. This phenomenon has serious consequences for the domestic market, undermining official exports and revenues from this key commodity. Corruption among local officials has facilitated the activities of smugglers, forcing the authorities to take decisive steps to protect the economy and regulate the cocoa market.

Asia

India recorded its lowest level of palm oil imports in five years in January 2025, driven by unfavourable refining margins and higher prices compared to soybean oil. In the first half of the month, imports amounted to just 110,000 tonnes, while in the previous marketing year, monthly shipments exceeded 750,000 tonnes. Total imports in January are estimated at around 370 000 tonnes. The price advantage of soybean oil is prompting buyers to choose it, leading to a decline in palm oil imports. This trend is likely to continue until palm oil prices reduce significantly.