- Wheat production in Canada is expected to decline by 1.1% to 35.5 million tons in 2025 due to lower yields.
- Spring wheat and durum wheat will see the largest declines, by 2% and 4.7%, respectively.
- Canola production will increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons thanks to higher yields.
- Corn and oats will see increased harvests, while soybeans and barley will remain in decline.
Variable weather limits cereal harvest
According to the latest Statistics Canada report on 28 August, total wheat production in 2025 is expected to decline by 1.1% year-on-year to 35.5 million tonnes. The reason is lower projected yields, estimated at 49.6 bushels per acre, while acreage remains steady at 26.3 million acres. Adverse and varying weather conditions in the prairies are affecting most crops.
The biggest decline is in spring wheat, which will see production decrease by 2% to 26 million tonnes. This is the result of both less acreage (down 1.5% to 18.4 million acres) and lower yields. Durum wheat production will fall by 4.7% to 6.1m tonnes. Although acreage will increase slightly to 6.4 million acres, average yields are expected to decrease by 5.1% to 35.1 bushels per acre.
Contrast in other crops – oilseed rape, maize and oats are up
While the wheat sector is struggling with declines, forecasts for other crops are more optimistic. Canada, the world’s largest producer and exporter of canola, is expected to harvest 19.9 million tonnes of the crop this year, 3.6% more than the previous year. The increase will be ensured by higher yields, which will compensate for a slight reduction in the area under cultivation.
Maize production is expected to increase by 1.4% to 15.6 million tonnes due to increased planted area, although average yields will fall to 165.9 bushels per acre. The oat crop is expected to reach 3.4m tonnes, up 1% year-on-year. In contrast, soybean production will fall by 7.3% to 7m tonnes and barley by 1.9% to 8m tonnes.
The projections therefore show a marked variation in the health of Canadian crops in 2025, while wheat and some protein crops will see declines, canola, corn and oats will maintain a positive trend.
