![US grain exports in the hole – 2025/26 season gets off to a worrying start [World News]](https://foodcom.pl/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/News-world_21-1520x760.png "US grain exports in the hole – 2025/26 season gets off to a worrying start [World News]")
- Soybean exports from the US for the 2025/26 season have reached their lowest level in 18 years, with no orders from China.
- Soybean oil is the only product to record a record result at the start of the season, which may signal growing global demand.
- Cotton and soybean meal are also starting the season very weakly, with the lowest results in about a decade.
Weak start to the season for key products
Although the US continues to benefit from last year’s record corn harvest, early export figures for the 2025/26 season are not encouraging. Soybean sales totalled just 460,000 tonnes – the lowest level in 18 years – and orders from China, traditionally the largest customer, are missing from the mix. The situation is not much better for wheat and maize – the figures also rank among the weakest in a decade.
Although the season is just beginning and most of the large purchases occur in the summer, increasing competition from Brazil and geopolitical tensions may limit the potential for a rebound later in the year.
Soybean oil on the upside, rest of products losing
Of all the commodities analysed, only soybean oil stands out positively. At the start of the 2025/26 season – i.e. in the first weeks of trading, before major orders have even started – the US has already contracted 11,800 tonnes of this commodity. This is the highest result for this stage of the season on record and may be indicative of growing global demand for vegetable oils. Although this volume corresponds to only 1% of annual exports, it is an important signal for producers and market analysts.
In contrast to oil, other commodities fared much less well. Soybean meal sales amounted to only 131,000 tonnes – the weakest start to the season in ten years. Cotton is experiencing even greater declines, with only 1.1 million bales (i.e. compressed units of cotton, weighing on average about 220 kg each) contracted, also one of the lowest results of the last decade. However, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts an improvement in the situation, especially if trade relations with China – a major cotton buyer – warm up.
