Foodcom Experts

Arabica prices rose after weekly rainfall in Minas Gerais was only 49% of normal. At the same time, ICE coffee stocks fell to their lowest level in 1.75 years, reinforcing the upward pressure.

The analysis, covering 840 municipalities in the Cerrado region, showed that the cutting of native vegetation reduced soybean production potential by around 34 million tonnes over a decade.

The cinnamon market is normalising after a period of dynamic price fluctuations and increased demand, reinforcing the division between bulk cassia and premium Ceylon, and highlighting the increasing role of regulation and quality of the raw material.

The end of the year brings an improvement in the cheese segment, price pressure on fats and continued stability in powders and proteins, while the market is heavily burdened by high milk production.

The wheat gluten market underwent a sharp correction in 2025, with prices falling by 25-30%, ending the boom. New production capacity in the US and a record wheat harvest led to oversupply, and the 'plant-based' segment stagnated.

The dairy market continues to feel the pressure of oversupply. Prices for most products remain low and trade is slowing down before the end of the year. Only the protein segment remains strong, supported by demand for functional foods.

A month-long farmers' protest will begin across Poland in mid-November. It is to culminate in a march to Brussels in opposition to European Union agricultural policy.

October 2025 revealed contrasts in the agricultural commodity market. Milk and cereals cheapened while supply was high, and coffee and cocoa kept prices high through weather factors.

China bought wheat from the US for the first time in a year after a meeting between leaders of the two countries. The decision could herald an easing of trade tensions and a return to economic cooperation.

The dairy market in Europe is showing the first signs of stabilization, with fresh butter prices rising and proteins remaining strong. At the same time, producers in the UK and US are facing price pressure, and Irish farmers are preparing for the winter barn period.

Rainfall forecasts in Brazil have triggered declines in arabica coffee quotations after previously rising to multi-month highs. However, persistent drought and low stocks are limiting further price weakness.

The global milk market enters 2026 with oversupply and low prices. The industry is betting on flexibility, consolidation and new export markets.