What’s new in the food industry? Market overview and analysis [February 2025]

February’s Food bulletin discusses the latest trends in food and commodity markets, including the strong growth of kataifi, driven by the growing popularity of Middle Eastern-inspired desserts, and the volatility of cocoa and coffee prices due to production challenges. The bulletin also highlights the rise of pistachio paste as a new trend in high-end products, as well as shaping developments in global agricultural trade, such as Mexico’s ban on GMO corn and the UK’s stance on trade agreements.

Kataifi

The kataifi market continues its strong growth in February 2025, driven by the viral success of ‘Dubai chocolate’ and bake d kataifi. The trend, which gained momentum in 2024, remains popular, leading manufacturers to increase production capacity, with some, such as Ireland’s Westmeath, now operating 24/7 to meet demand. As kataifi consolidates its place in the premiumisation of confectionery, its growing consumption has caused temporary shortages in some markets, which could affect prices and supply in the coming months. Industry experts predict continued interest, especially in Middle Eastern-inspired desserts, which will further strengthen its role as the most important luxury ingredient.

Cocoa

The cocoa market remains highly volatile, with prices remaining high due to supply concerns and speculative activity. Difficult weather conditions in West Africa, combined with fears of tree diseases, have put pressure on the market, although Côte d’Ivoire – the world’s largest cocoa producer – expects its 2025 harvest to match last year’s levels. Meanwhile, customs authorities have seized 2,000 tonnes of misdeclared cocoa, highlighting growing problems with illegal trade. High raw material costs are forcing chocolate producers to raise prices, which could affect global demand and the industry’s pricing strategies in the coming months.

Pistachio paste

The pistachio paste market continues to grow, positioning itself as the next big thing after Pumpkin Spice. Once a niche product, pistachio paste is now gaining popularity, with retailers launching their own versions. Its versatility has made it a key ingredient in high-end confectionery, cakes and even drinks, while gaining popularity in savoury dishes. The viral success of Dubai-style pistachio-filled chocolates has further fuelled demand, leading to new product innovations such as pistachio-based doughnuts, cakes and even dumplings. With growing interest and increasing competition in the premium spreads segment, market analysts anticipate potential price changes as supply adjusts to growing global demand.

Coffee

The global coffee market remains volatile, with Arabica prices up 29% since the beginning of the year, reaching multi-year highs. This increase is due to lower harvests in Brazil and Vietnam, where extreme weather conditions led to a 12% drop in production compared to the previous season. In addition, high global stocks and higher transport and production costs are putting additional pressure on prices. While some analysts warn that prolonged high prices could slow demand, forecasts for the 2025/2026 season suggest a potential recovery in production, which could help stabilise the market. Given the current volatility, importers and producers should closely monitor trends and adjust their strategies to ensure stable supply and competitive prices.

We encourage you to read the recommended article: Arabica – everything you need to know about the queen of coffees

NEWS

The governor of the Brazilian state of Pará has announced the withdrawal of a planned tax on cereal production that was originally due to come into effect in March. The tax, which was to impose levies on soybeans and maize, was met with strong opposition from producers, who argued that it would harm competitiveness. Meanwhile, the neighbouring state of Maranhão introduced a 1.8% export tax on cereals, prompting opposition from farmers and industry groups. While local authorities claim that the revenue will fund logistical improvements, trade associations have already filed lawsuits arguing that the tax could disrupt the agricultural sector.

The UK Minister for Environment and Agriculture, Steven Reed, has announced that the UK will not enter into trade agreements with countries such as the US that would allow the importation of food produced in a way that does not meet UK standards. The decision is aimed at protecting domestic producers from unfair competition and preventing imports of products such as beef with growth hormones, which are banned in the UK. Reed stressed that previous trade agreements, such as the one with Australia, had been detrimental to the UK agricultural sector and pledged to avoid similar situations in the future.

Mexico’s lower house of parliament has approved a constitutional reform banning the cultivation of genetically modified (GMO) maize. The decision follows a trade dispute with the United States, in which a USMCA panel ruled that Mexico’s previous restrictions on GM maize imports were illegal. While Mexico lifted these restrictions, it introduced a ban on cultivation to protect native maize varieties. The reform, passed with 409 votes in favour and 69 against, now awaits Senate approval. Analysts warn that the ban could escalate trade tensions with the United States, which exports $5 billion worth of GM maize to Mexico each year, mainly for livestock feed.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has announced a US$1 billion plan to combat the ongoing avian flu outbreak, which has severely impacted the poultry industry and driven up egg prices. The initiative includes $500 million for biosecurity measures, $400 million for financial assistance to affected farmers and $100 million for vaccine research. In addition, the USDA plans to increase egg imports to stabilise supply and mitigate consumer prices, which are expected to increase by 41% in 2025. While these measures are aimed at curbing the crisis, analysts warn that it could be months before consumers experience price relief.