![Storm on the plant-based market – latest disruptions and outlook [74th Edition of the PLANT-BASED Newsletter]](https://foodcom.pl/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Foodcom_SA_Newsletter_Plant-Based-1520x760.jpg "Storm on the plant-based market – latest disruptions and outlook [74th Edition of the PLANT-BASED Newsletter]")
- Carob is growing rapidly – its market will increase by 43% by 2030 as an alternative to cocoa.
- Pea protein supplies from China are disrupted by tariffs and logistics, causing prices to rise in Europe.
- Potato protein has virtually disappeared from the market – availability is limited, prices are rising, and Foodcom has stocks.
- Unpredictable weather in Canada and a decline in corn imports by China are destabilising the global commodity markets.
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Welcome back to our newsletter!
Global markets are changing. Carob is gaining ground, pea protein is experiencing supply shocks and potato protein is disappearing from European warehouses. Add to this unpredictable weather in Canada, rising palm oil prices and China’s reduction in corn imports – and you have a perfect storm. Know what’s coming. Act fast. Stay in control. Information is power – and right now, it’s all about speed.
Let’s see what else has happened recently in the plant-based market!
Carob
Carob, a natural substitute for cocoa, is increasingly making its presence felt in the food market. In 2023, the global value of this market exceeded $235 million and is forecast to grow to almost 338 million by 2030. This represents a regular, steady growth of around 5% per year. Why does carob attract attention? It is naturally sweet, caffeine-free and fat-free, and its mild caramel flavour is ideal for healthy snacks, smoothies and baked goods. More and more producers see it not only as an alternative to cocoa, but also as a raw material with potential for its own place in the market.
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Pea protein isolate
The European pea protein (pea protein isolate) market has been experiencing supply disruptions from China in recent weeks . These problems can be attributed to several factors, including the Trump administration’s trade policy , which raised tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 20% in February 2025. Additionally, delays in shipping and trade tensions are contributing to difficulties in supplying European producers with this key raw material.
Pea proteinisolate is widely used in sports nutrition products and plant-based meat and dairy substitutes. Current supply disruptions are leading to price increases and forcing producers to seek alternative sources of supply or modify their product formulations.
Potato protein
What else?
Canada’s capricious weather: will it affect this year’s sowings?
Canadian farmers are facing the challenge of unusual weather conditions that could affect their sowing plans more than the current commercial tariffs. According to the latest forecasts, areas such as Manitoba and Saskatchewan have experienced below-normal snowfall this winter, while Alberta has recorded above-average rainfall. The southern region of Manitoba has been particularly dry, receiving less than 40% of normal precipitation since the beginning of the year.
If the dry weather continues into the spring, farmers may have to change their sowing plans, preferring cereal crops to oilseeds, which are more sensitive to moisture shortages. Current forecasts indicate a continuation of dry conditions in western Canada into early April, making spring rainfall crucial to a successful start to the cropping season.
Malaysia maintains 10% export duty on palm oil – what does this mean for the market?
Malaysia, which is the world’s second largest palm oil exporter, has decided to maintain its export duty on crude palm oil at 10% in April. At the same time, the benchmark price for the commodity was raised to 4 547.79 ringgit per tonne, compared to 4 390.37 ringgit per tonne in March.
Malaysia’s export tax structure starts at 3% for crude palm oil in the price range of 2 250 to 2 400 ringgit per tonne, reaching a maximum rate of 10% at prices above 4 050 ringgit per tonne.
Drastic drop in maize imports threatens market outlook
China has recorded its lowest level of maize imports in seven years, calling into question the market’s previous forecasts. Imports totalled just 1.07 million tonnes between October 2024 and February 2025, compared to 1.03 million tonnes in the same period of the 2017/18 season.
China’s Ministry of Agriculture has lowered its maize import forecast for the full year to 9 million tonnes, which is less than half that of the previous season and significantly lower than the previous estimate of 13 million tonnes. The drop is due to weakening demand in the livestock sector and government efforts to support domestic prices and protect farmers’ incomes.
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