The cocoa market at a crossroads in 2025 – latest forecasts and risks [World News]

Long-awaited collapse in cocoa prices

Cocoa prices fell by more than 30% in 2025, reversing the trend of the previous year’s sharp increases, which eventually reached 178%. The 2024 price rise was driven by supply concerns, fuelled by adverse weather conditions in West Africa, crop diseases, dwindling global stocks and smuggling.

Now expectations of increased production and improved weather conditions have led to lower prices. Demand for cocoa has also weakened as large chocolate corporations cut back on cocoa consumption and consumers switch to more expensive products. The International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) predicts a supply surplus for the 2024/25 season of 142,000 metric tonnes – this would be the first surplus in four years.

Problems in Côte d’Ivoire and new hope in Brazil

Despite forecasts of increased supply, the main cocoa producer, Côte d’Ivoire, is facing serious structural problems. In addition, current weather conditions affecting intercrop development remain difficult. The market regulator, the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC), has announced that for the 2025/26 season, the contract sales limit will be reduced from 1.7 million tonnes to 1.3 million tonnes. This is in response to a second consecutive year of crop decline. In doing so, experts point out that this is not just a cyclical decline, but a sustained trend caused by climate change, ageing plantations and the increasing scale of plant diseases, particularly the cocoa shoot swelling virus, which has affected up to 50% of the country’s crop. It is estimated that 70% of the crop is old trees, more susceptible to disease and climate change.

Instead, in the face of global challenges, four Brazilian organisations have launched the Kawa Fund, which aims to raise 1 billion reals (US$176 million) by 2030 for loans to small cocoa producers in the states of Bahia and Para. In Brazil, 80% of all cocoa production comes from small farms. Similar initiatives could provide hope for strengthening the cocoa sector.

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