Cocoa prices are rising sharply due to concerns about the harvest in West Africa

The market is reacting to news from West Africa

Cocoa prices are once again under upward pressure, with concerns about production in West Africa remaining the main factor. The market is reacting primarily to the situation in Ivory Coast and Ghana, two key countries for the global cocoa supply. Heavy rainfall is hindering access to plantations and ports, which is increasing uncertainty regarding the availability of the raw material.

On July 8, cocoa prices on the exchanges rose significantly. The September cocoa contract in New York rose by $293, or 5.09%, while the London contract rose by 228 GBP, or 5.35%. This marked the third consecutive session of gains. Prices in New York reached their highest level in six months, and in London, their highest in seven months. For buyers of cocoa, cocoa mass, cocoa butter, and chocolate products, this means greater pressure on the cost of purchasing the raw material.

Weather remains key to raw material availability

The price increases are driven not only by current logistical challenges following heavy rains. Excessive moisture also increases the risk of cocoa tree diseases, which can weaken yields and worsen harvest prospects. Another factor is the El Niño phenomenon, which typically brings warmer and drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture and weakening the health of the trees.

However, the market situation remains ambiguous. Cocoa stocks monitored by the ICE exchange rose to 3,099,445 bags, reaching their highest level in nearly two years. At the same time, preliminary estimates from Côte d’Ivoire indicate weaker cocoa pod development, and production for the season beginning in September may amount to 1.8 million metric tons, compared to approximately 2.2 million metric tons in the 2025/26 season. Higher inventories are partially easing supply pressure, but weather and crop conditions may still significantly influence the future direction of prices.