Cocoa Market Overview 2026 [Global Report]

The first half of 2026 shows that improved physical availability of cocoa has not restored price stability. The 2024/25 season ended with a slight surplus, exchange stocks rose, and shipments from Côte d’Ivoire were significantly higher than the previous year. At the same time, forecasts for upcoming harvests remain uncertain, and prices continue to react sharply to weather conditions and initial assessments of the 2026/27 season.

It is precisely this discrepancy between the improving supply-demand balance and persistent volatility that is the most important characteristic of the market in 2026. For buyers, this means that the current price alone is no longer sufficient to assess the situation. The timing of purchases, the origin of the raw material, diversification of supplies, and the supply chain’s readiness to meet EUDR requirements are becoming increasingly important.

Global Cocoa Market Analysis

The market has clearly moved away from the severe deficit recorded in the 2023/24 season. The shortfall at that time amounted to approximately 492,000 metric tons. In the 2024/25 season, the balance shifted to a surplus, the size of which was revised several times as new data became available. The latest revised estimate available in May 2026 indicated a surplus of approximately 48,000 metric tons.

Global production for the 2024/25 season was estimated at 4.723 million metric tons, and processing at 4.628 million metric tons. Ending stocks rose to approximately 1.320 million metric tons, and their ratio to processing reached 28.5%. These figures confirm an improvement in supply but do not yet indicate a full return to market balance.

Some of the available forecasts for the 2025/26 season still point to another surplus, though its expected scale remains uncertain and has been revised downward in recent months. At the same time, shipments from Côte d’Ivoire have increased significantly. It is estimated that by July 12, approximately 2.09 million metric tons of cocoa had arrived at ports, 21% more than during the same period of the previous season. Stocks monitored by ICE stood at approximately 3.15 million bags on July 10, reaching their highest level in nearly two years.

On the demand side, significant regional variations persist. In the second quarter of 2026, European cocoa processing totaled 316,366 metric tons, down 4.6% from a year earlier. In total, Europe processed 642,261 metric tons of cocoa in the first half of the year, 6.3% less than in the same period of 2025.

In Asia, the situation developed in the opposite direction. Processing in the second quarter rose by 25.1% year-over-year, to 224,646 metric tons. For North America, the most recent figure is from the first quarter, when processing volume fell by 3.8% to 106,087 metric tons.

High raw material costs prompted some manufacturers to reduce product weights, modify recipes, and lower cocoa content. However, processing data do not indicate a uniform global decline. Europe remained under pressure, while processing activity in Asia increased significantly. The latest available data from North America continued to show a moderate decline. Processing volume should not, however, be directly equated with retail sales or chocolate consumption.

Prices remain the most distinctive feature of the market. During the 12 months leading up to mid-July, New York futures prices fluctuated from below 3,000 to nearly 9,000 USD per metric ton. By comparison, the historical high from late 2024 approached 13,000 USD per metric ton.

In July 2026, volatility surged sharply once again. On July 6, the September New York contract gained approximately 13.1% in a single trading session. On July 9, prices exceeded $6,400 per metric ton, reaching their highest level in about eight months. The following day, the market fell by about 6%. By July 15, the price had fallen back below $6,000 per metric ton.

Such a wide price range shows that, for buyers, timing their purchases is becoming just as important as the market’s direction itself. Even with higher inventories, news about weather, harvests, and shipments can lead to sharp price fluctuations.

The second key factor is the growing distinction between bulk cocoa and specialty cocoa. In the bulk segment, the balance of supply and demand and exchange prices play the most significant role. For specialty cocoa, the sensory profile, origin, traceability, and quality of documentation are of greater importance.

Regional Analysis of the Cocoa Market

Europe

Europe remains one of the most important centers for cocoa processing, but the first half of 2026 brought further pressure on volumes. In the second quarter, processing volume totaled 316,366 metric tons, down 4.6% from the previous year. In total, European processing plants processed 642,261 metric tons of cocoa in the first half of the year, 6.3% less than in the same period of 2025.

At the same time, the market is preparing for the implementation of the EUDR. The EUDR will take effect on December 30, 2026, for large and medium-sized operators, as well as downstream operators and traders, regardless of their size. For most micro and small operators placing cocoa on the EU market for the first time, the deadline for compliance is June 30, 2027. However, the exact scope of obligations depends on the company’s role in the supply chain. This means that the geolocation of plots, documentation of origin, and the ability to link a batch of raw material to its place of production are becoming increasingly important.

The simplifications introduced have reduced some of the administrative obligations. The due diligence statement is submitted by the operator who first places the product on the EU market or exports it. Subsequent operators and traders do not submit their own declarations but must collect, store, and transmit reference numbers. Entities that are not small and medium-sized enterprises will also be required to register in the information system.

West Africa

Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon together account for about two-thirds of global cocoa production. The region therefore remains a major risk factor for the global balance.

Côte d’Ivoire’s production for the 2025/26 season was projected at 2.0–2.1 million metric tons, which would represent an improvement over the previous season. Increased shipments to ports also indicated better availability of the raw material. At the same time, early assessments of the 2026/27 season signaled the risk of another decline in production. However, the scale of this decline remained uncertain and depended on the further development of the fruit, the condition of the plantations, and weather patterns.

Heavy rainfall in late June hampered access to some plantations in Ivory Coast and Ghana and increased the risk of fungal diseases. In the first half of July, lighter rainfall began to dry out the excessively wet soil, but the plantations still needed more sunshine to improve growing conditions for the main harvest.

At the same time, El Niño was developing. In July, the probability of a very strong El Niño event occurring between October and December was estimated at 81%. Such an episode could rank among the strongest in the record dating back to 1950. However, this does not determine the specific weather patterns in every region.

El Niño’s impact on cocoa is not one-sided. Excessive rainfall can increase disease pressure, while subsequent periods of warmer and drier weather can exacerbate water stress in the trees. The risks for the 2026/27 season therefore depend not only on the total amount of rainfall but also on its distribution and timing.

Ghana continues to grapple with the swollen shoot virus, aging plantations, and illegal gold mining, which is destroying agricultural land. These factors are limiting the pace of production recovery and maintaining uncertainty surrounding the region’s supply.

Growing traceability requirements are further changing trade conditions. Once the EUDR takes effect, the lack of required data on origin, geolocation, and deforestation-free status may prevent a given batch of cocoa from entering the EU market.

North America

The most recent available data on cocoa processing is for the first quarter, during which processing fell by 3.8% to 106,087 metric tons. The decline was less severe than in Europe but still indicated pressure on the processing sector from high raw material costs.

Manufacturers responded by adjusting recipes, reducing product weights, and increasing the use of alternative ingredients. Lower raw material prices may eventually limit the scale of these measures, but data available through July 16 did not yet confirm a full recovery in demand.

Latin America

The most significant development in Latin America is Ecuador’s growing prominence. Cocoa exports from Ecuador are projected to exceed 623,000 metric tons in 2026, which would represent an increase of approximately 11% compared to 2025. This is a forecast for calendar-year exports, not production volume for the cocoa season.

Ecuador’s production for the 2025/26 season was forecast at over 570,000 metric tons. In the 2026/27 season, it could rise above 650,000 metric tons, which would give Ecuador the opportunity to overtake Ghana and take second place among the largest producers. However, these are still forecasts, and their realization will depend on both Ecuador’s production and Ghana’s final output.

Average yields on Ecuadorian plantations are estimated at around 800 kg of cocoa per hectare, compared to less than 500 kg in many West African producing regions. The share of the world price received by Ecuadorian producers can reach about 90%, while in the regulated pricing systems of Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, it is typically lower. This difference may increase opportunities for investing in plantations and improving yields.

Ecuador’s importance also stems from its agroforestry practices and its strong position in the fine-flavor cocoa segment. However, the cultivation system alone does not guarantee compliance with the EUDR—appropriate documentation, traceability, and geolocation data remain essential.

Asia

Cocoa processing in Asia rose significantly in the first half of 2026. In the second quarter, it reached 224,646 metric tons, 25.1% more than in the same period of the previous year. This was a significantly stronger increase than the 5.2% recorded in the first quarter.

Asia’s performance contrasts with the decline in processing in Europe and confirms the regional diversity of the market. However, it should not automatically be interpreted as a corresponding increase in retail chocolate consumption, as processing volumes may also reflect inventory restocking, changes in trade flows, or the utilization of production capacity.

Trends and Forecasts for 2026

High volatility remains the first key trend. Physical cocoa availability has improved, but the market continues to react sharply to weather, preliminary harvest estimates, and changes in exchange inventories. July price movements showed that double-digit fluctuations during a single trading session can occur even when current shipments from the largest producing country are higher than a year ago.

The second trend is the practical implementation of the EUDR. Traceability requirements are no longer a distant regulatory concern but are becoming part of day-to-day purchasing decisions. Simplifications have reduced the number of required declarations but have not altered the regulation’s fundamental objective, which is to verify the legality of production and the absence of deforestation.

The third trend is the growing role of Latin America, particularly Ecuador. West Africa remains the most important supply region, but higher yields and more favorable economic incentives are supporting the growth of production in Ecuador. The possibility of overtaking Ghana in the 2026/27 season remains a forecast rather than a foregone conclusion.

The fourth trend is the growing regional divergence in processing volumes. In the second quarter, Europe recorded a 4.6% decline, while Asia saw a 25.1% increase. The latest available data from North America, covering the first quarter, indicated a 3.8% decline. These results show that the impact of raw material prices on processing activity is not uniform across all markets.

The cocoa market in 2026 is best described not as a return to normalcy, but as a period of continued volatility. The 2024/25 season ended with a surplus of raw cocoa, and current forecasts point to another surplus in 2025/26. Despite this, prices can still rise by more than a dozen percent over the course of a few trading sessions, only to quickly give up those gains. For buyers, this means that the timing of the purchase, diversification of sources, and ensuring suppliers are prepared to meet EUDR requirements are becoming just as important as the spot price,” comments Adam Carecci, Deputy Director of the Cocoa Department at Foodcom S.A.

Global Reports from Foodcom S.A.

Curious about what’s next for cocoa? Discover the latest trends and insights that will shape the market in the coming quarters. Visit our blog and stay up to date with Foodcom S.A.’s reports.