Black Sea turmoil threatens global wheat supplies [World News]

Falling production in Russia and Ukraine adds to uncertainty in grain market

Forecasts for the global wheat market point to possible shortages until 2026, mainly due to declining production in the countries of the Black Sea region. Russia and Ukraine, which together account for around 30% of global wheat exports, could see a significant reduction in their 2025/26 harvest.

Ukraine could reach its lowest production level in 13 years due to dry conditions at sowing and low crop profitability, resulting in reduced sown areas. In Russia, production is forecast to be between 79.7 and 82.5 million tonnes, close to the previous year’s level, but uncertainty over weather conditions is a concern.

Global wheat market turmoil

Although the latest USDA forecasts for the 2024/25 season show a slight improvement in the wheat market, this does not mean an end to the problems. The stocks-to-use ratio, which shows how much wheat is left in the world after annual demand is met, currently stands at 15.89%. This is slightly better than previously expected, mainly because China is expected to reduce imports, but it is still lower than the average at the end of the previous decade, which was above 18%.

The further development depends on the situation in the countries that are decisive for the global market. In the US, a decrease in planted area is expected, especially for high-protein wheat. Canada, on the other hand, plans to increase crops. In Argentina, good yields may be possible if the authorities maintain the export tax cuts. Australia faces the risk of a drop in production of as much as 16% due to drought, and in the European Union, the soft wheat harvest is expected to increase by 8% compared to last season.