![Australian wheat backlogged by fall in Chinese imports [World News]](https://foodcom.pl/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/News-world_22-1-1520x760.png "Australian wheat backlogged by fall in Chinese imports [World News]")
- Australian wheat stocks may rise to a record 8 million tons, significantly exceeding the average of recent years.
- Exports to China have fallen dramatically, and cheap wheat from Russia is limiting Australia’s competitiveness in the global market.
- Excess stocks and the approaching harvest threaten a forced sale at reduced prices, known as a “fire sale.”
- Even with lower production than in the record year, Australia may not be able to store unsold wheat, which will exacerbate price pressure.
Increase in stocks, risk of sell-offs and pressure on prices
Wheat stocks in Australia could reach as much as 8 million tonnes at the end of the current season, well above the last five-year average of 3.3 million tonnes. The main reasons are a sharp decline in exports to China and high supply from Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter. Australia shipped just 546,000 tonnes of grain to China between October and March – a significant drop from 2.9 million tonnes in the corresponding period of 2023/24 and 4.4 million tonnes in 2022/23.
With the harvest looming in the final quarter of the year, Australian exporters may be forced into a so-called “fire sale”, a quick sale of stocks at lower prices. This could put further strain on the global market, where wheat futures in Chicago are already hovering around their lowest levels since 2020.
Global competition and limited export opportunities
Russia, despite currently being outside the peak export season, continues to supply large volumes of wheat at competitive prices. This severely limits Australian export opportunities, particularly to regions such as the Middle East and Africa. Furthermore, the upcoming harvest in the northern hemisphere, including Russia, will bring further large volumes of low-priced grain into the market.
If the pace of exports from Australia does not change, the country will end the season with 5-6 million tonnes of unsold wheat from the last harvest. With favourable weather conditions, the new crop could exacerbate the problem, leading to a shortage of storage space and forcing farmers and traders to sell at even lower rates, even in the region of A$300 per tonne, compared with the current A$325-A$350.
Government forecasts indicate that this year’s wheat production will be between 28 and 34 million tonnes – lower than last year’s record 34.1 million tonnes, but still above the 10-year average of 27.6 million tonnes. Single purchases from China in May (four or five cargoes of 55,000 tonnes each) do not change the overall trend – no new orders have emerged.
