- Ammonium nitrate is a key fertiliser used in agriculture worldwide.
- December saw fluctuations in global commodity prices, influenced by insufficient stocks, the weather situation, production and supply disruptions and the upcoming planting season.
- Prices increased in Europe and the USA, while they decreased in India.
Complex situation on the ammonium nitrate market
Recently, ammonium nitrate prices have manifested considerable volatility on world markets. In the West, prices rose strongly in December, while a decline was seen in the Asian region, particularly India. The movement in the ammonium nitrate market is related to the upcoming planting season and insufficient stocks of nitrogen fertiliser. In addition, severe weather conditions disrupting supply chains have occurred in key regions for their production.
Ammonium nitrate prices are expected to remain high or increase further. Supply constraints and strong demand associated with a seasonal increase in agricultural activity are likely to exert increased pressure on raw material prices.
Price increases in the western market and decreases in India
In the European market, usually the main factor influencing ammonium nitrate prices is the cost of ammonia – the most important raw material for the production of this compound. This time, however, despite the fall in ammonia prices, ammonium nitrate prices have risen, heavily influenced by producer activity related to rebuilding fertiliser stocks ahead of the agricultural season. Tensions related to a possible increase in electricity prices in Europe are also important.
The North American market, particularly in the USA, has also seen a slight increase in ammonium nitrate prices, which is linked to restrictions in ammonium nitrate stocks. This has put upward pressure on fertiliser prices, which in turn has led to an even greater imbalance between supply and demand and further price increases. Production challenges and logistical disruptions are impacting the market, with producers replenishing stocks ahead of the season.
In the Indian market, ammonium nitrate prices have declined slightly, mainly due to steady demand from the fertiliser market based on contractual agreements. In addition, available stocks of domestic and imported ammonium nitrate are sufficient to meet demand.