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- The Brazilian Arabica harvest in 2025 will be lower, in line with the biennial production cycle and the impact of adverse weather conditions.
- Bean quality has improved, with a high proportion of 17–18 calibration and a growing presence of the highly valued peaberry coffee.
- So far, about 12% of the planned production has been harvested, with a particularly fast pace in the Cerrado Mineiro region, where the harvest has already reached 4%.
- Forecasts indicate possible delays in harvesting due to an approaching polar front, which may affect the availability of beans on the market.
Brazilian arabica 2025 with lower yields but better grain quality
The Brazilian arabica coffee harvest for the 2025 season has just started, and the first observations confirm earlier forecasts – it will be a so-called ‘weaker year’ in the production cycle. Although the overall crop is expected to be lower, industry experts note an improvement in the quality of the beans, which could have a positive impact on the export value of Brazilian coffee.
In the Cerrado Mineiro region, around 4% of the expected production has already been harvested. According to Wellis Caixeta of the Expocacer cooperative, as many as 30-40% of the beans reach a calibration of 17-18, placing them close to the upper quality limit. Larger grains not only fill 60-kg bags more easily, but may also indicate a better potential yield. A slight increase in the proportion of peaberry coffees, valued for their unique flavour and shape, was also noted.
Weather factors and forecasts for the Arabica coffee market
According to agronomist Jonas Ferraresso, Arabica yields will be significantly lower in 2025 – consistent with the variety’s two-year cycle of alternating years of high and low productivity. Such weather at the beginning of the season negatively affected the development of the kernels in the upper parts of the trees, and some of the fruit ripened too early and fell to the ground, which could impair its quality.
Ferraresso estimates that 20-30% of the crop could be lower quality coffee, while 70-80% should meet good standards. In contrast, according to Fernando Maximiliano of StoneX, arabica production in 2025 will be down 13.5% on the previous year. As of 26 May, just over 12% of the planned crop had been harvested, and low stocks in storage suggest that greater grain availability will not occur until mid-June. However, meteorological forecasts are predicting the arrival of a polar front, which could slow down further harvesting.
