- Sugar production in the 2025/26 season is estimated at 28.5–29 million tons, below earlier forecasts.
- Official industry estimates had previously indicated a level of 30.95 million tons.
- The largest decline in production was recorded in the state of Maharashtra.
Production and conditions in the country
India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, has forecast lower production for the 2025/26 season than previous estimates, according to internal industry analysis. Instead of the expected close to 31 million tonnes, the new forecast indicates 28.5-29 million tonnes of sugar, mainly due to lower sugarcane yields as a result of heavy rainfall in key producing states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka.
Farmers in these regions highlight that delayed root development and earlier maturity of the crop have reduced yields, contributing to the decline in productivity. In addition, a significant number of sugar mills have already completed the crushing season due to shortage of cane, further restricting production.
The production forecast is published in the context of a global market which, according to analysis, could experience oversupply in the 2025/26 season, continuing to put pressure on global sugar prices.
Exports and impact on markets
To mitigate the impact of lower production and stabilise the market, the Indian government has increased the sugar export limit to 2 million tonnes, adding 500,000 tonnes to the previous quota. However, traders indicate that actual shipments are unlikely to exceed 700,000 tonnes, mainly because domestic prices are currently higher than international markets, reducing the economic incentive to export.
Higher prices on the local market also help to mitigate the effects of reduced production and further reduce the amount of sugar available for shipment abroad.
In international markets, price pressures persist due to fears of a global market surplus and demand under pressure, keeping prices close to five-year lows, although limited supply from India may be a local upward factor.
