Sugar Market Review 2026 [Global Report]

The year 2025/26 marks a turning point for the global sugar market. After several seasons in which the market operated under the pressure of limited supply and high volatility, the current season brings a clear improvement in the balance. Production is growing faster than consumption and global stocks are recovering from years of decline. At the same time, the market is not returning to full equilibrium. Volatility is not disappearing, but is shifting from the production level towards politics, trade and energy market relations.

Sugar is becoming less and less responsive to crop volumes alone. Decisions on the structure of supply, the pace of exports and administrative actions in the major producer and consumer countries are now crucial.

Global sugar market analysis

In 2025/26, global sugar production rises to 189-190 million tonnes, up from around 182 million tonnes in the previous season. Global consumption is estimated at 177-178 million tonnes, an increase of 1-1.5% year-on-year, clearly slower than the rate of supply growth. As a result, the global balance sheet shows a production surplus of 11-12 million tonnes.

The effect of this surplus is to rebuild ending stocks to around 44-45 million tonnes, a significant change from the 2022/23 and 2023/24 seasons, when global stocks declined steadily, increasing the market’s vulnerability to weather and logistics shocks. The current level of stocks improves the physical security of the market, but does not imply full neutralisation of price risk.

Indeed, the structure and concentration of stocks is crucial. A significant proportion of them remain concentrated in producing countries rather than in import markets. This means that these stocks are not always fully ‘liquid’ from the point of view of international trade. In practice, the availability of sugar on the world market still depends on export decisions and logistical conditions, and not solely on the volume of stocks in statistical terms.

On the demand side, there are no factors that could significantly change the trajectory of the market in the short term. In developed countries, sugar consumption remains stable or slightly declining, influenced by changes in consumer preferences and health regulations. Demand growth is concentrated in Asia and Africa, but its scale is not sufficient to absorb the global oversupply in a single season.

The relationship of the sugar market to the energy market remains an important element of the global balance. The production of ethanol from sugar cane affects the effective supply of sugar, but at current production and stock levels this mechanism acts as a short-term regulation rather than a factor capable of permanently altering the balance structure.

In parallel, the importance of administrative decisions is increasing. Export policies, limits on foreign sales and mechanisms to stabilise domestic markets mean that the real availability of sugar on the world market does not always reflect production potential. As a result, even with a global surplus, the market remains vulnerable to political impulses.

Regional analysis of the sugar market

Latin America

Latin America remains a key pillar of global sugar supply and the main source of surplus available on the international market. In 2025/26, the region’s sugar production exceeds 60 million tonnes, a significant proportion of which is destined for export. The scale of production and cost-effectiveness means that the region effectively sets the lower limits of world market prices.

An important feature of the region is the high flexibility of the sugar sector. The ability to shift the raw material flow between sugar and ethanol means that sugar supply can respond to changes in price relations with a relatively short lag. At current production levels, however, this mechanism acts more as a short-term stabilisation tool than a means of permanently reducing the global surplus.

In 2025/26, the region also acts as the main ‘balancing supplier’ for deficit markets. This means that the pace of exports from Latin America largely determines the availability of sugar in Europe, Africa and parts of Asia. In a high supply environment, price pressure is transmitted through this channel, especially during periods of seasonal supply accumulation.

Asia and the Pacific

Asia accounts for more than 40% of global sugar production and, at the same time, a very large proportion of global consumption. In 2025/26, the region sees a marked improvement in supply, reducing import demand and increasing the export potential of selected countries.

At the same time, Asia remains the region most vulnerable to administrative changes. Decisions on domestic market management, export levels and raw material use mean that the region’s real impact on the global market can change significantly from season to season. In practice, this means that Asia is sometimes both a stabiliser and a source of sudden trade tensions.

From a global balance sheet perspective, it is crucial whether the region functions as a net exporter or rather absorbs surpluses from other parts of the world. In high production seasons, Asia reduces imports, which reinforces price pressure on the world market. In weaker seasons – a quick return to the import market can significantly change market sentiment.

Europe

Europe remains a structurally losing region on the supply side. Sugar production in 2025/26 falls to around 15-16 million tonnes, compared to levels in excess of 17 million tonnes in previous seasons. Reduced sugar beet acreage, cost pressures and regulatory requirements limit the competitiveness of the European sector.

As a result, Europe is increasingly functioning as an import market, sensitive to world prices and external availability of raw material. With a high global supply, this improves security of supply, but at the same time increases pressure on local producers, whose margins remain under constant pressure.

From an international trade perspective, Europe today acts as a ‘surplus receiver’. During periods of low global prices, the region becomes a natural destination for sugar absorption, limiting the possibility of a rebound in world market prices. At the same time, this increases the long-term risk of further shrinkage of the European production base.

Africa

Africa remains a region with relatively low production, less than 10% of global supply, but with rapidly growing demand. Population growth, urbanisation and changes in consumption patterns mean that many countries in the region remain net importers of sugar.

In an environment of high global supply, Africa benefits from the increased availability of raw material and relatively attractive prices. At the same time, the region remains highly sensitive to non-market factors: exchange rates, freight costs, access to finance and political stability.

From a global balance sheet perspective, Africa acts as a gradual ‘surplus absorber’, but this process is uneven and prone to disruption. This means that even with a global surplus, local African markets may periodically experience supply tensions.

functions as a net exporter, or rather absorbs surpluses from other parts of the world. In high production seasons, Asia reduces imports, which reinforces price pressures on the world market. In weaker seasons – a quick return to the import market can significantly alter market sentiment.

Europe

Europe remains a structurally losing region on the supply side. Sugar production in 2025/26 falls to around 15-16 million tonnes, compared to levels in excess of 17 million tonnes in previous seasons. Reduced sugar beet acreage, cost pressures and regulatory requirements limit the competitiveness of the European sector.

As a result, Europe is increasingly functioning as an import market, sensitive to world prices and external availability of raw material. With a high global supply, this improves security of supply, but at the same time increases pressure on local producers, whose margins remain under constant pressure.

From an international trade perspective, Europe today acts as a ‘surplus receiver’. During periods of low global prices, the region becomes a natural destination for sugar absorption, limiting the possibility of a rebound in world market prices. At the same time, this increases the long-term risk of further shrinkage of the European production base.

Africa

Africa remains a region with relatively low production, less than 10% of global supply, but with rapidly growing demand. Population growth, urbanisation and changes in consumption patterns mean that many countries in the region remain net importers of sugar.

In an environment of high global supply, Africa benefits from the increased availability of raw material and relatively attractive prices. At the same time, the region remains highly sensitive to non-market factors: exchange rates, freight costs, access to finance and political stability.

From a global balance sheet perspective, Africa acts as a gradual ‘surplus absorber’, but this process is uneven and prone to disruption. This means that even with a global surplus, local African markets may periodically experience supply tensions.

North America

The sugar market in North America operates within a highly regulated system in which the balance is shaped primarily by trade policy rather than market mechanisms. Domestic production, imports and domestic prices are largely administratively stabilised.

High global supply puts pressure on the price environment, but its direct impact on the North American market is limited. The region remains relatively isolated from short-term fluctuations in the global market, which reduces its role as a balancing factor in the global balance sheet.

From a global perspective, North America acts as a stable, predictable consumer rather than an active participant in the supply game.

Trends and forecasts for 2026

In 2026, the global sugar market will remain in oversupply, with high production and stock levels ensuring very good physical availability of the commodity. With moderate consumption growth, the reduction of the surplus will be a staggered process and will not lead to a significant tightening of the market in the short term.

Under such conditions, sugar prices will be shaped primarily by trade and the current availability of raw material, rather than by changes in annual balances. The market will remain relatively flat in price and any price movements will be mainly driven by short-term commercial and logistical factors, rather than permanent shortages.

The impact of energy prices on sugar supply levels in 2026 will remain limited. With very high raw material availability and rebuilt global stocks, changes in energy costs will not be a factor capable of reducing supply in real terms, nor of changing the direction of the market.

In 2026, sugar prices will depend more on competition between exporters and the timing of sales than on the real risk of shortages. The market will become particularly sensitive to situations where large volumes hit the market at the same time, which can periodically put pressure on prices, even with a stable annual balance sheet.”

Andrzej Liupak

Senior International Commodity Trader at Foodcom S.A.

On the demand side, there are no signals that could significantly change the market structure. Consumption will grow gradually, mainly in developing countries, but at a pace that will not be sufficient to absorb the global oversupply in the short term.

Global Reports from Foodcom S.A.

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