- The sugar price index rose 6.1% and the grain price index rose 5.1% month-over-month.
- The global food price index rose to 136.0 points, its highest level since November 2022.
- Trade restrictions in the Black Sea region are dampening expectations for wheat and corn exports.
- The forecast for global grain trade for the 2026/27 season has been lowered by 0.7%.
Sugar and grain price indices are rising the most
In September, global food prices rose again. The FAO index rose to 136.0 points from 134.0 points a month earlier, reaching its highest level since November 2022. The largest increase was recorded for sugar, whose index rose by 6.1%. This marked the third consecutive month of gains, as the market reacted to concerns about weather conditions and potential supply constraints in major producing regions.
The grain price index, in turn, rose by 5.1%. This was driven by weaker corn yield outlooks in the United States and disruptions to grain trade via the Black Sea. The vegetable oil index rose by 0.9%, while the meat index fell by 1.1%.
Restrictions in the Black Sea are worsening trade forecasts
Restrictions on shipping and trade through the Black Sea are affecting expectations for grain exports. Forecasts for wheat and corn exports have been lowered, and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, along with weather-related concerns, are creating additional uncertainty.
Global grain production in 2026 is expected to total approximately 2.979 billion metric tons, down 2.1% from the previous year, but this would still be the second-highest figure on record. At the same time, the forecast for global grain trade in the 2026/27 season was lowered by 0.7% compared to the previous month.
