Crises, innovations & revolution – the plant-based market in 2024! [71st Edition of the PLANT-BASED Newsletter]

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The year 2024 was a time of challenges and breakthroughs in the crop commodity market, impacted by record prices, production disruptions and difficulties related to climatic conditions and rising costs. As the year draws to a close, we take a closer look at cocoa, coffee and potato products – three important raw materials that, according to our experts, have had a decisive impact on shaping the market in 2024, transforming it under the influence of crises and innovations.

We are happy to announce that we will be back in 2025 with a new design and outlook. But first, let’s revisit the moments that defined 2024!

Cocoa

In 2024, the cocoa market struggled through an unprecedented crisis when the price of the raw material reached record levels, exceeding €9300/MT – an increase of 75% in a year. The cause was the accumulation of extreme weather conditions in West Africa, where drought and heavy rainfall reduced yields in Ghana by as much as 40% and across the region by more than half. Producer governments like Ghana tried to counteract the situation by raising farmgate prices by 45%, but raw material shortages and rising logistics costs have pushed the market into an upward spiral. Experts warn that in the face of dwindling stocks and climate change, chocolate may soon become a luxury good, and the growing interest in synthetic cocoa and other alternatives will only partially alleviate the crisis.

Coffee

The coffee market in 2024 was struggling with a deep crisis, fuelled by a drought in Brazil – the world’s largest producer – which caused Arabica yields to fall by more than 30% in major growing regions such as Minas Gerais. As a result, coffee prices reached a record high of 330.25 cents per pound on the New York Stock Exchange, the highest in 47 years. Rising transport, energy and fertiliser costs have further destabilised the market, while consumers in Europe and the US face price rises in coffee shops and shops. Alternatively, Robusta producer Vietnam has seen an increase in exports, and the growing interest in high quality Colombian coffee, such as Excelso varieties, indicates the changing preferences of importers in response to the crisis.

Potato products

In 2024, the potato products market faced a number of challenges as a result of harsh weather conditions, which reduced the quality and quantity of the harvest, particularly in organic crops. High potato starch prices persisted due to rising demand and disruptions in supply chains, while organic potato flake producers struggled with limited availability of raw materials and competition from cheaper products from Ukraine. As a major European player in the organic potato products sector, Poland has sought to strengthen its position by investing in modern cultivation and processing technologies that increase the potato’s resilience to changing climatic conditions. Despite the difficulties, increasing consumer awareness of organic gives hope for further market development, although forecasts indicate the possibility of further price increases in 2025.

2024 market movers in plant-based

The year 2024 brought significant changes and challenges to the plant raw material market, which significantly affected global production and distribution. Climate events, new regulations, social protests and political changes have left their mark on the availability and cost of plant products.

At the beginning of the year, Argentina and Brazil, leading exporters of soya and pulses, struggled with a prolonged drought. Drastic reductions in the supply of plant-based raw materials contributed to higher prices for meat and milk substitutes, forcing producers to look for alternative sources of protein. During the summer, India was hit by floods, which severely disrupted exports of spices such as turmeric and cardamom, pushing up prices in the European market.

The year also brought significant regulatory changes in the European Union. In February, the European Parliament approved amendments on new genomic techniques (NGTs), paving the way for faster adoption of more resistant and nutritious crops. In March, labelling rules for plant-based products were updated, banning the use of terms such as ‘milk’ or ‘butter’ for plant-based products, increasing compliance costs for companies. In April, a regulation was introduced to combat deforestation, requiring importers to prove that their raw materials do not come from areas affected by deforestation after 2020.

Farmer protests in a number of countries, including Poland, the Netherlands, France and Germany, were a significant 2024 event. Farmers voiced their opposition to rising production costs, EU environmental regulations and competition from cheap imports from outside the EU. In Poland, the protests in May were particularly high-profile, with farmers opposing, among other things, the EU’s Green Deal regulations, which they felt threatened farm profitability. These protests had a significant impact on the stability of supply and prices of crop products in Europe.

Towards the end of the year, China focused on agricultural innovation, investing in climate and disease-resistant potato growing technologies. These measures are aimed at safeguarding production stability in the face of ongoing climate change.

Trade policy has also played an isostic role in 2024. The election of Donald Trump as US president in November heralds changes in trade relations, particularly with China, which could affect the cost and availability of crop raw materials exported from Europe.

In summary, 2024 was a period of intense change, requiring manufacturers to be flexible and innovative in the face of increasing climate, regulatory, geopolitical and social challenges. What lies ahead in the New Year?

Stay ahead of the curve! The future of the plant-based market is evolving, and we’ll be back in the New Year with even fresher insights, groundbreaking trends, and essential analysis. Don’t miss a beat – what will 2025 bring?