- Cocoa production in West Africa could fall by 10% in the 2025/26 season due to difficult weather conditions.
- The main producing countries, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, are struggling with excessive rainfall and crop diseases.
- Logistical problems, a lack of fertilisers and limited financing are further exacerbating the situation for farmers.
- The decline in supply could translate into further increases in cocoa prices, which are already reaching record levels.
West African cocoa production to fall by 10 per cent in 2025/26
Cocoa production in West Africa, a region responsible for around 70 per cent of the world’s supply, could fall by up to 10 per cent in the 2025/26 season. The main reasons for the projected decline are persistent adverse weather conditions, which are increasingly affecting the health of cocoa plantations.
This situation mainly affects Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, the two largest cocoa producers in the world. Both countries are struggling with excessive rainfall, which is disrupting harvests, encouraging the development of cocoa tree diseases and restricting farmers’ access to the crop. Furthermore, lower fertiliser availability and limited access to finance are further affecting the health of plantations.
Global cocoa market under pressure
The expected 10 per cent drop in the harvest could have a significant impact on global cocoa prices, which are already at record levels, recording increases of more than 150 per cent this year. The market remains highly sensitive to reports from West Africa, and reduced supply from such a key region could mean further price increases and exacerbate raw material availability problems for the food industry.
In addition, there is growing uncertainty among local farmers who, despite high prices, are unable to increase production due to logistical, financial and climatic constraints. The industry is therefore gearing up for a difficult 2025/26 season, which could affect not only producers, but also the price of chocolate products and the availability of cocoa on the global market.
