Chocolate price goes up: is this the end of cheap sweets?

Chocolate, the favorite treat of billions of people, is facing a crisis. Prices for cocoa, a key raw material, have reached record levels, which could drastically change the face of the global confectionery market. Will a cup of hot cocoa and a bar of your favorite chocolate become premium products?

Cocoa prices at historic peak

On global exchanges, cocoa prices have surpassed the PLN 40,869 per ton mark, reaching their highest level in decades. The surge is the result of an accumulation of problems, including extreme weather conditions, falling production and rising logistics costs. Experts warn that this is just the beginning.

Cocoa prices have reached levels that were unthinkable just a few years ago. We are witnessing a crisis that could shake the entire confectionery market.

Adam Carreci, Director of the Commercial Department

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West Africa in crisis

Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, accounting for more than 60% of the world’s cocoa production, are having a difficult time. Droughts, plant diseases and lack of access to modern cultivation technologies have caused a drastic drop in yields. In Ghana, yields have declined by more than 50%, and the outlook for next year is equally pessimistic.

Who will suffer the most?

The plantation crisis is directly affecting consumers. European and American producers are announcing price increases. In Poland, the price of chocolate bars may rise by up to 30%, which is already causing concern among consumers. For many, chocolate may soon become a commodity too expensive to reach the daily table.

“It’s a difficult time for manufacturers – they have to balance rising costs with the need to maintain competitive prices. For consumers, however, price increases are inevitable.”

Piotr Marcnkiewicz, Partner at Foodcom S.A.

Stocks are shrinking, costs are rising

The situation is exacerbated by the declining availability of raw material. Cocoa stocks monitored by ICE at U.S. ports have reached a 20-year low of just 1.45 million bags. Meanwhile, transportation and fertilizer costs continue to rise, further pushing up raw material prices.

“Inventories are shrinking more each week, and this is fueling panic in the markets. We fear that we will soon witness even more dramatic increases.”

Marcin Stradowski

Long-term implications for the market and consumers

Piotr Marcinkiewicz, Partner at Foodcom S.A., stresses that the current situation in the cocoa market could have serious long-term consequences for both the industry and consumers around the world.

“This is not a problem that will be solved in a few months. The cocoa market crisis is the result of long-term climate change, lack of investment in West Africa and global logistical problems. Unless sustainable solutions are implemented, such as improving growing conditions or increasing support for local producers, we can expect further price increases and reduced availability of chocolate on the market.”

Marcinkiewicz comments

The expert also points to changes in producers’ strategies: “More and more producers are considering introducing alternatives, such as chocolates with lower cocoa content or the use of synthetic substitutes. This will change not only the method of production, but also the taste and quality of products available on the market.”

Will the everyday treat become a rarity?

Unless immediate action is taken, both locally and globally, chocolate could become a luxury. For consumers around the world, this is a sad prospect – it may not be long before their favorite treat becomes a product for special occasions, rather than an everyday pleasure.