- Brazil could export approximately 50 million bags of green coffee in the 2026/27 season.
- Projected production is expected to reach 75.8 million 60-kg bags.
- The current market structure is encouraging growers to sell their stocks quickly.
- El Niño may reduce the risk of frost but could also threaten the flowering of coffee plants.
- Higher exports from Brazil are expected to help rebuild global coffee stocks following earlier shortages.
Record production drives coffee exports
Brazil could set a historic record for coffee exports in the new 2026/27 season, which begins in July. According to estimates by EISA, the Brazilian division of global commodities trader ECOM, green coffee exports could reach approximately 50 million 60-kg bags. This would surpass the previous record set in 2024, when foreign buyers purchased 46.3 million bags.
Production forecasts indicate a harvest of 75.8 million bags for the 2026/27 season. Currently, only about 5% of this year’s crop has been harvested, but producers are inclined to sell quickly due to spot prices being more favorable than futures prices. According to EISA representatives, increased supply from Brazil could help rebuild global coffee stocks, which remain low following earlier production issues in key exporting countries.
El Niño remains the main risk to the market
Despite optimistic forecasts for the current season, market participants are closely monitoring the development of El Niño. According to Carlos Santana of EISA, weather conditions associated with this phenomenon could have a significant impact on Brazil’s next coffee harvest.
Warmer weather conditions may reduce the risk of frost, which is one of the greatest threats to Brazilian plantations. At the same time, excessive temperatures could negatively impact the flowering stage of coffee plants, which occurs in September and October. The market estimates that a potential deterioration in the outlook for next year’s harvest could prompt producers to slow the pace of sales later in the season.
