- Coffee prices are reaching record levels, exceeding 330 cents per pound, as a result of Brazil’s drought, logistical problems and speculation.
- The drought in Brazil has drastically reduced the harvest and climate change threatens a long-term crisis in the coffee market.
- Rising transport, energy and fertiliser costs are further driving up prices, making coffee increasingly unaffordable.
- Vietnam and Colombia are gaining from the crisis by offering alternatives to expensive Arabica, but the global availability of coffee is in question.
Coffee, once an everyday beverage available to everyone, is now becoming a luxury. Arabica coffee futures prices have reached unprecedented levels, exceeding £30 per kilo. What is behind this dramatic increase and what will be the consequences for consumers around the world?
Record prices on exchanges
On the New York Commodity Exchange, Arabica coffee contracts for March 2025 reached 330.25 cents per pound, the highest level in 47 years. This unprecedented rise is the result of a combination of factors, including extreme weather conditions, logistical problems and rising production costs. Experts note that the current situation could be the beginning of a long-term crisis in the coffee market.
Drought in Brazil – a blow to the coffee empire
Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is facing its worst drought in decades, which has drastically reduced yields. In regions such as Minas Gerais, responsible for much of the Arabica production, yields have fallen by more than 30%. Growers are warning that if conditions do not improve, future harvests will also be at risk.
This year’s problems in Brazil are not just drought, there is a knock-on effect. Lack of investment in plantations, water problems and ongoing climate change are creating a situation where the next seasons will also be at risk
Who suffers, who gains?
The crisis in Brazil is hitting buyers around the world. In Egypt, importers are sounding the alarm about record coffee prices, which have risen by more than 40% in the last few months. In Europe and the United States, coffee chains such as Starbucks are announcing price increases for their products and consumers are looking at their bills with dismay.
However, there are countries that are profiting from the chaos. Vietnam, the largest producer of Robusta, is seeing an increase in exports as the cheaper variety of coffee begins to replace Arabica in blends and retail products.
Moreover, because of these difficulties, the eyes of importers are increasingly turning to Colombia. Colombian coffee, especially varieties such as Excelso or Supremo, is becoming another hope of distributors in the face of this crisis
Rising costs and volatile markets
Coffee is not just getting more expensive because of weather problems. Rising transport, energy and fertiliser costs are hitting growers around the world. In addition, speculation on coffee exchanges is adding to the pressure on prices.
The market is reacting chaotically – we are seeing panic among buyers who are trying to secure supplies for the future, which is only driving prices up even further
Will morning coffee become a luxury?
The coming months do not bring optimistic predictions. Global climate change, which is hitting major producers such as Brazil, and rising production costs mean that coffee prices are likely to remain high.
Coffee is becoming the new gold today, and if the situation does not stabilise, it will become an out-of-reach product for many consumers
A cup of coffee, formerly available on every budget, could become a symbol of a new reality where climate change, inflation and global economic problems are creeping into every sphere of life. Will the world find a way to keep coffee accessible to all, or will it become another luxury reserved for the richest? For now, the answer is as bitter as espresso.
