The situation on the global coffee market in the 2025/26 season [World News]

Coffee production and exports in Brazil, Colombia and Indonesia

In 2025/26, the coffee market presents varying dynamics depending on region and variety. In Brazil, strong growth in robusta production continues, with forecasts for the state of Espírito Santo of more than 17 million 60-kg bags, surpassing previous years’ levels. The abundance of supply has pushed futures prices down to USD 4550 per metric tonne – the lowest in 5.5 months. Countering this trend is the arabica market, where a prolonged drought in key regions such as Minas Gerais is creating uncertainty over the quality and size of the crop. Arabica prices rose to 351.20 cents per pound ( 1.46%), reflecting investor concerns.

In Colombia, the situation is the opposite, with production expected to fall by 5.3% to 12.5 million bags. The reason for this is the heavy rainfall, which has disrupted the development of the coffee fruit. Exports could also fall – by 4.1%, to 11.8 million bags. In addition, a 10% duty imposed by the US from April 2025 could hamper trade with Colombia’s main export partner. In Indonesia, on the other hand, production is forecast to increase by 5% (to 11.3 million bags) and exports by 7% (to 6.5 million bags), but the situation is complicated by a possible 32% tariff in the US and EUDR regulations that restrict imports of raw materials linked to deforestation.

Factors affecting international coffee prices and trade

The current market situation shows a clear variation in the impact of weather, political and logistical factors on the various coffee segments. An increase in the supply of robusta in Brazil is leading to price pressure, causing farmers to speed up harvesting and sales, fearing a further drop in prices. At the same time, shortages of arabica and rising prices may encourage importers to diversify their purchasing sources. Colombian producers are grappling with rising costs and export uncertainty, limiting their ability to invest and produce.

Indonesia, despite a positive production outlook, is already experiencing the effects of regulatory changes – EU anti-deforestation regulations (EUDR) have prompted exporters to accelerate shipments to Belgium and Germany, where total imports have doubled to 1.4 million bags. At a local level, there is also a noticeable increase in coffee consumption in Indonesia (to 4.81 million bags), mainly due to low-cost products and ready-to-drink beverages. In Colombia, consumption remains stable (2.2 million bags), while imports increase to 1.5 million bags – mainly from Brazil, Peru and Ecuador.