- The EU will increase wheat production to 136 million tonnes – 11% more than last year.
- EU exports will increase by 28% to 34 million tonnes.
- Russia will maintain its leading position with exports of 45 million tonnes.
- The largest importers are Egypt, Indonesia and China.
Europe prepares for a bigger harvest
After a difficult season in 2024, EU farmers have reason to be optimistic. according to USDA forecasts, EU wheat production could reach 136 million tonnes – 11% more than last year and 3% above the five-year average. The improved outlook has been driven by more favourable weather conditions, especially in Germany and France, where the weather this season has been much better than last year.
The autumn rains, although causing flooding and crop losses in some places, have helped replenish soil moisture reserves in many parts of Europe. However, things are not going so well: increasing drought is starting to affect Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. more rainfall will be necessary to maintain an optimistic outlook.
Exporters in the game – Russia and the EU in the lead
Fierce competition is expected in global wheat markets. the USDA expects global exports to reach 214.2 million tonnes, the third highest level on record. Russia plans to export 45 million tonnes of wheat, cementing its leading position. the European Union, which is rebuilding its exports after a disappointing season, is expected to reach 34 million tonnes – an increase of up to 28%.
Canada, the third-largest wheat exporter, will maintain its level at 27 million tonnes, although much of the farmland there is still suffering from a lack of moisture. Australia, on the other hand, will see a 9 per cent drop in production due to the ongoing drought. meanwhile, the import market will be dominated by established countries, with Egypt, Indonesia and China once again among the biggest buyers.