- Global coffee stocks are at record lows and at least two successful harvest seasons are needed to rebuild them.
- The biggest problems concern Arabica beans, which are particularly prized by consumers.
- Difficult weather conditions in Brazil, such as frosts and droughts, have significantly reduced coffee production.
- Continued uncertainty about supply is driving up coffee prices on global exchanges and may translate into higher prices in Europe.
Challenges in rebuilding global coffee stocks
Experts predict that global coffee stocks will remain low until at least the end of next year. Experts stress that at least two consecutive successful harvest seasons will be required to rebuild global reserves of the commodity. The situation is particularly worrying for Arabica beans, which are the most prized by consumers.
The global deficit is primarily influenced by the weather, more specifically the difficult climatic conditions in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer. Recent seasons there have brought frosts and droughts that have significantly reduced the size of the harvest. As a result, stocks in major consumer countries such as the United States have fallen to their lowest levels in several years.
Outlook for the coming months and impact on coffee prices
Although this year’s harvest in Brazil promises to be better than in previous seasons, experts warn that this will not be enough to fully stabilise the market. Low stock levels are translating into price uncertainty. Already, coffee prices on global exchanges remain elevated and many producers and importers fear further increases. This situation may also affect retail prices for consumers in Europe, including Poland.
