- The year 2024 brought with it a significant increase in coffee prices, influenced mainly by adverse weather conditions and a prolonged drought.
- In the autumn, prices started to stabilise, but another large increase is visible in recent days.
- This is influenced by difficulties in the coffee harvest in Vietnam caused by adverse weather, as well as the weakening of the Brazilian currency and the holding back of coffee sales in the hope of better prices.
- The prospect of the EU anti-deforestation regulation coming into force is also a major factor.
November’s rise in coffee prices on global markets
World stock exchanges in London and New York today saw a further increase in coffee prices for both robusta and arabica varieties. Since the beginning of November, prices have risen from just over $2.4 per pound to over $2.8 per pound, a record high for the year. It may be recalled that at the beginning of the year, prices were even hovering around $1.8, with a sharp increase in the spring, peaking at around $2.5 at the end of April. Recently, however, coffee prices have stabilised and even periodically started to fall slightly.
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Why are coffee prices rising again?
Several factors are contributing to the subsequent surge in coffee prices. First and foremost is the uncertainty about the quantity of this year’s crop, particularly in Brazil. The country is also seeing a weakening of the local currency against the dollar and producers holding back sales in anticipation of better economic conditions, which is also having an impact on coffee prices. In contrast, in Vietnam, where the coffee harvest is currently underway, unfavourable weather conditions are delaying the harvest. The country has also seen a local increase in coffee prices for the past four days. The current price has peaked at VND112200 per kilogram, an increase of VND800. Increased coffee prices may also be influenced by the uncertain prospects of coffee cultivation in the next few years, with the intensified drought and the EU regulation on anti-deforestation, whose implementation, however, has been postponed for one year.