The new cocoa season begins with lower harvest forecasts

The new season begins amid lower harvest forecasts

The 2026/27 cocoa season began on September 1 in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. The market is entering the season amid greater uncertainty regarding supply. Later estimates based on field surveys indicate that production in Ghana may total approximately 650,000 metric tons, compared to about 750,000 metric tons in the previous season.

The situation also remains tense in Côte d’Ivoire. Larger shipments from the main harvest may arrive later than usual, with the delay estimated at as much as 8–10 weeks. The main harvest through the end of February 2027 may total approximately 1.4–1.45 million metric tons. This means that the availability of raw cocoa in the first weeks of the season may remain limited.

The global cocoa balance is tightening significantly

Forecasts for the global balance are also changing. Some current estimates indicate that the global cocoa surplus in the 2026/27 season may shrink to several tens of thousands of metric tons. This is significantly less than earlier forecasts indicated and signals that the global supply-demand balance may be much more even.

However, the price outlook remains uncertain. Inventories are still relatively high, and demand in Europe remains weaker. At the same time, a strong El Niño and lower forecasts for West Africa are increasing the market’s sensitivity to further harvest reports. For buyers of cocoa, cocoa mass, cocoa butter, and chocolate products, this means greater uncertainty regarding purchase costs in the coming months.