Monthly review of the agricultural commodities market [November]

November 2025 brought markedly different sentiment in global agricultural commodity markets. Dairy and cocoa remained under pressure from oversupply and volatile weather conditions, while cereal and additive markets showed greater stability despite intense trade competition. The most important changes concerned demand shifts, differences in export rates and persistently high stocks, which in many segments determined the direction of prices and purchasing decisions at the turn of the year.

Dairy products

November 2025 was marked in the dairy market by a persistent oversupply of milk and weakening trade activity. Production in Europe, the US and Oceania remained at elevated levels, with most customers already having their needs secured for the fourth quarter and first months of 2026. Momentary signs of stabilisation at the end of October quickly gave way to renewed price pressure, while the only significant mitigating factor remained the weaker euro, improving the competitiveness of some EU exports.

In Europe, high raw material availability kept powder prices at low but relatively stable levels. SMP traded mostly in the €2,000-2,100/t range, with moderate but growing export interest, while WMP remained under clear pressure from a weak fats market and seasonally quieter demand from the chocolate and confectionery industries. The autumn milk surplus hit the fats segment particularly hard: butter in Europe moved down to around €4,350-4,550/t, while AMF remained in a mild downtrend. The surplus of cream and the weak pace of exports made the fats market the weakest link in the entire dairy complex.

Cheeses fared relatively better thanks to the pre-Christmas recovery and stronger export activity, which helped to reduce stocks at the end of the year. Gouda and mozzarella were back around €3,000-3,050/t, with contracts for Q1-Q2 2026 deliveries trading higher in anticipation of a further drop in production costs. Cheddar, however, remained under pressure from stocks and competition from external markets, while Emmental continued to correct after previous high price levels. The whey protein segment was clearly the best performing: WPC 80 and WPI benefited from sustained demand in functional and sports foods and limited supply, keeping prices close to historical highs and stabilising profitability for some processors.

All in all, November confirmed that we remain in a clearly supply-driven market, with the buyer still dictating the terms in most traditional categories, while high-quality proteins remain a premium segment. The month was conducive to finalising contracts for Q1-Q2 2026 and renegotiations in the most oversupplied segments. However, the balance remains fragile – the pace of reduction in milk procurement after the New Year and Europe’s ability to maintain export competitiveness could change the balance of power in the market relatively quickly.

Cereals and starches

November 2025 in the cereals market was marked by entrenched global oversupply and exceptionally high stocks, which continue to effectively limit the upside potential of prices. Following a record harvest in the 2025/26 season, the market entered a phase of fierce export competition, with trading activity mainly focused on the battle for markets in Asia and Africa. Despite punctuated logistical tensions, supply pressures remained the dominant factor and the price recovery found no sustained fundamental support.

In the European Union, the storage situation remains very comfortable, especially for wheat and maize. High stocks, limited export liquidity and strong competition from the Black Sea region mean that much of the grain goes to feed processing and the bioenergy sector rather than to third markets. The aggressive pricing policy of Russian and Ukrainian exporters continues to effectively crowd out more expensive EU offers from traditional non-European destinations. As a result, exporters from France, Germany and Central Europe are operating under strong margin pressure and sales are mainly made in the short term.

In the maize market, November confirmed the continuing oversupply in Central and Eastern Europe. Poland, Romania and Hungary are still struggling with large volumes of grain in storage and feed demand, although stable, has not kept pace with the availability of raw material. The good availability of maize reduces the cost of starch and bioethanol production, but strong competition between processors limits the possibility of improving end-product prices. In the starch sector, a stabilisation of quotations was observed while the cost of raw material continued to fall, improving operating margins but not translating into higher selling prices.

On a global level, November brought a significant political and trade boost in the form of a trade agreement between China and the US, including increased quotas for imports of US corn, wheat and sorghum into China in the first half of 2026. The announcement of the agreement itself triggered a brief rebound in Chicago futures prices, but its impact on the physical market in Europe remains limited for the time being. For the global market, however, it implies a potential shift of part of the trade flow from South America and the Black Sea region towards the US, which may gently reduce competitive pressure on EU exports in the following months, but does not change the overall picture of high supply.

Coffee and cocoa

Coffee market

November 2025 in the coffee market was marked by strong price fluctuations caused by trade and currency factors rather than changes in production fundamentals. In the arabica market, the landmark event was the US administration’s decision to remove 40% tariffs on imports of Brazilian food products, including coffee. The withdrawal of tariffs, which had previously restricted the flow of the commodity to the world’s largest consumer market, triggered a sharp fall in quotations: arabica temporarily lost more than 6% and robusta around 8%, as investors began to discount the rapid return of Brazilian volumes to international trade. Brazilian exporters described the decision as “historic” and US importers began to revise their purchasing strategies for a higher proportion of arabica from Brazil.

In the weeks that followed, additional pressure on prices was caused by developments in the currency and export markets. The depreciation of the Brazilian real encouraged producers to sell, exacerbating declines in New York contracts. At the same time, there were reports of very strong export growth from Vietnam, a key supplier of robusta. November shipments were expected to increase by almost 40% year-on-year and January-November sales by 15%, leading to the lowest levels of robusta prices in London for two months. The market absorbed these volumes despite local rainfall and harvest delays in Vietnam itself, showing that supply pressures remained the dominant short-term factor.

These factors overshadowed concerns over long-term stockpiles and unfavourable weather in parts of Brazil, leaving the market in a short-term downtrend, despite continuing structural supply-side tensions.

Cocoa market

In the cocoa market, November saw a continuation of the correction from the record high prices of 2024, but with market participants remaining very nervous. Futures prices in London and New York continued to remain many times higher than the 2018-2022 average, although November itself saw a further decline of around 6% month-on-month, in response to increasingly better crop forecasts in West Africa. The latest ICCO statistical bulletin indicated that the 2023/24 season ended with a significant deficit, but a small surplus balance is already expected for 2024/25 with global production up by around 8% and a concomitant decline in chocolate processing (grindings) of over 4%. These figures confirm the picture of a market emerging from a period of extreme shortage towards a more balanced supply, albeit at still very high price levels.

At the same time, symptoms of weakening processing demand were evident. Market analyses highlighted a decline in cocoa processing in Europe and Asia, by a few to several per cent year-on-year, respectively, while the increase in North America was largely statistical, resulting from an expansion of the sample of reporting plants rather than an actual jump in consumption.

Additives

November 2025 in the functional and feed additives market was marked by moderate price stability, with continued operational uncertainty. Asian producers – key to the global supply of vitamins, amino acids and bioactive ingredients – maintained production at similar levels to the autumn months, although lead times for some orders remained extended. European importers continued their strategy of securing contracts early to minimise the risk of logistical overloads.

The strongest growth in demand was in natural additives, especially phytogenic feed components, which are gaining ground as an alternative to antibiotics. The essential oils and herbal blends segment is growing fastest in 2025, particularly in Asia and South America, where the pressure for sustainable feeding systems is greatest.

Prices for the traditional supplements, vitamins and amino acids, remained stable. There were no major movements in the vitamin C market, with balance provided by steady supplement demand with weaker activity in the feed sector. In the amino acid group (taurine, L-carnitine, creatine), November confirmed stabilisation after earlier price falls; producers still preferring medium and long-term contracts. The exception was arginine, which became one of the most sought-after products of the month. Limited availability and delays in deliveries from several Chinese plants triggered increased enquiries and difficulties in securing spot volumes.

For citric acid and pH regulators, price pressure was slightly downward due to good availability of the commodity from Asia and continued stocks with European customers. At the same time, producers indicate that rising energy costs may affect margins in the coming year.

The regulatory environment remains one of the key factors shaping the market. Following the EU decisions in the autumn to renew the authorisation of selected additives, the industry has been monitoring EFSA’s work on updating safety requirements and environmental impact assessments. These changes are likely to influence the structure of product portfolios and customer preferences in the coming years.

In summary, the additives market in November 2025 remained stable in price, but strongly determined by operational and regulatory factors. Natural additives remain the fastest growing segment, while the main chemical categories maintain moderate, predictable demand.

Summary and forecasts

In November 2025, key agricultural commodity markets remained influenced by high supply and clear segmental differences. In dairy, raw material surpluses continued to constrain fats and powders prices, while whey proteins remained strong due to stable demand. In cereal markets, global stocks and the aggressive export policy of the Black Sea countries maintained price pressure, while European exports remained uncompetitive. In coffee and cocoa, quotations remained high and volatile, due to low stocks and uncertain weather forecasts in the main producer countries. In additives, the natural feed components segment strengthened markedly, while prices for essential vitamins and amino acids remained stable.

Forecasts for early 2026:

• in dairy, further adjustments in fat prices are possible if the reduction in milk production proves slower than expected;
• in cereals, supply pressures will persist and any rebound in prices will depend on changes in US-Asia trade policy and the new season in the northern hemisphere;
• the coffee and cocoa markets will remain susceptible to weather and stock levels, implying continued elevated volatility;
• in natural additives, demand is expected to continue to increase, while the vitamin market is likely to remain stable with limited spot availability.

The end of 2025 shows that the differences between market segments are clearly widening, forcing a more selective approach to the evaluation of individual raw material categories.