Soybean Market Review 2026 [Global Report]

The year 2025 is a period of marked change for the global soybean market. After years of high volatility, caused among other things by weather problems in South America, trade tensions and dynamic changes in demand, particularly in Asia, the market is beginning to enter a more orderly phase. Global supply is growing, but at the same time demands on the demand side are increasing. In addition, regulatory and logistical pressures are increasingly becoming a permanent cost element rather than just a temporary factor.

Soya remains a strategic raw material. It is crucial for both the feed market, vegetable oils and the growing biofuel sector. This means that even at record production levels, the market remains sensitive to factors such as weather, trade policy or changes in energy and renewable fuel regulations.

Global soybean market analysis

For the 2025/2026 season, the global soybean market is taking off with significantly higher supply and increasing throughput. On balance, this means greater availability of the commodity than in previous years, when the market struggled with supply tensions. According to USDA estimates, global soybean production for the 2025/26 season is around 425.7 million tonnes, with ending stocks reaching 124.4 million tonnes. Rebuilding stocks reduces the risk of short-term shortages, but at the same time increases competition between major soybean exporting countries.

The January update of the USDA WASDE report confirmed that the rate of supply growth is now higher than the rate of consumption. In practice, this means that the market has a larger ‘safety buffer’. Local weather problems or logistical disruptions are now less able to cause prolonged global price tensions.

Balance sheet stabilisation is particularly evident in South America. Brazil is projected by the USDA to reach production of around 178.0 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season. Such high volumes, combined with improved export infrastructure, strengthen Brazil’s position as a major supplier to the world market. As a result, the export space for other countries is reduced, especially during peak supply periods from the southern hemisphere.

At the same time, demand for soya is not weakening in structural terms, but is changing in nature. The market is becoming increasingly divided into two segments: protein, based on soybean meal, and fat, linked to soybean oil. The relationship between these segments is increasingly influencing the profitability of processing and trade decisions across the soy complex.

In 2025, the US biofuels sector confirmed its growing role in shaping soybean oil demand, but also revealed the limitations of this trend. Despite record soybean throughput, the USDA lowered its estimate of soybean oil use in biofuels to around 14.8 billion pounds in its January update. The reason for this is increasing competition from lower carbon-intensity alternative feedstocks. As a result, the soybean oil market is increasingly responding to regulatory decisions and energy policy, rather than solely to crop yields.

China, as a key importer of soybeans, reached a record level of imports in 2025 with 111.83 million tonnes, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year. However, this high volume was largely the result of a strategy to secure supply amid trade uncertainty. The structure of imports and their seasonality show that China’s purchasing decisions are tactical and strongly responsive to political and trade factors.

In parallel, environmental requirements and supply chain transparency are growing in importance. Regulations on deforestation mitigation, geolocalisation and due diligence procedures are becoming a permanent feature of soy trade costs, especially in Europe. Although the deadline for full implementation of the regulations has been postponed until 30 December 2026, the direction of change remains the same. Access to regulated markets will increasingly depend on the quality of documentation and traceability of the origin of the raw material.

Regional analysis of the soybean market

The global soybean market is highly regionally differentiated. This is due to the different roles of each area in terms of production, processing, trade and demand structure.

Latin America

Latin America remains the key region for soybean supply. Brazil, with production of around 178.0 million tonnes, is consolidating its position as an export leader, supported by the development of logistics infrastructure. Argentina retains an important role as a processing and export centre for soy products, especially meal. In 2026, the country’s level of processing margins will have a significant impact on global feed protein availability. At the same time, the region remains at the centre of the debate on deforestation and supply chain traceability.

Africa

Africa is gradually increasing the importance of soya in the context of local feed production and domestic processing development. However, the region’s potential is limited by infrastructural, financial and climatic barriers. As a result, its role in global soybean exports remains small.

Asia and the Pacific

Asia remains the main centre of soybean demand. China maintains its position as a key importer while increasing the flexibility of its purchasing strategies. In 2026, it will be crucial to maintain stable throughput margins. Their deterioration could lead to periodic increases in price volatility, even with high global stocks.

Europe

Europe remains a highly regulated import market. It is not only the quantity of imported soya that is increasingly important, but also its form and compliance with environmental requirements. The high supply of soy products is encouraging a shift in part of the demand from grain imports towards soybean meal imports.

North America

The US remains an important player on both the supply and processing side of soybean. The strong linkage between the soybean oil market and biofuel policy increases the volatility of processing margins and affects the structure of exports, even with a favourable grain balance.

Trends and forecasts for 2026

The outlook for 2026 shows that the soybean market will be shaped by several factors simultaneously. High supply, the changing processing structure, regulation and the decisions of major international trade participants will be key.

Structural oversupply with continued volatility

High production levels and rebuilt stocks reduce the risk of physical shortages. However, this does not mean full market stabilisation. Prices are reacting less and less to harvest data alone and more and more to the structure of processing, regulation and changes in trade flows.

Soy complex declaration

The relationship between the oil and meal markets is becoming one of the main sources of volatility. Soybean oil is increasingly linked to energy and biofuel policy, while meal remains dependent on the health of the feed and livestock sector. Throughput is becoming a key point of equilibrium for the entire market.

China: from import expansion to balance sheet management

The record imports of 2025 were hedging. In 2026, purchases are expected to slow down and inventory management becomes more important. This increases the sensitivity of the market to seasonality and synchronisation of supply.

Biofuels as a contingent rather than a guaranteed factor

The potential for growth in soybean oil demand remains significant, but its realisation depends on regulation, competition from other feedstocks and the development of the SAF segment. Biofuels remain a source of volatility rather than a stable pillar of demand.

Regulatory market segmentation

Increasing environmental requirements in Europe are leading to a permanent segmentation of the market into regulatory-compliant soya and the rest. Regulation is increasingly influencing price structures, trade patterns and transaction costs.

Strategic conclusions

The most important, and still often underestimated, factor affecting the global soybean market is the changing role of the commodity. Soya is ceasing to be solely a feed component. Its energy function is becoming increasingly important, with increasing environmental pressures on the entire supply chain.

High yields today do not guarantee market stability. The balance depends primarily on the relationship between processing segments, biofuel policies and the ability to meet regulatory requirements.

There is plenty of soya in the 2025/2026 season, but this does not mean that the market does not face challenges. Prices are increasingly less dependent solely on the size of the crop. Processing levels, biofuel and trade regulations and the origin of the raw material are increasingly important. Whether demand focuses more on oil or meal is also important. As a result, the market is focusing less and less on the supply itself and more and more on the directions of soybean use.”

Marcin Stradowski

Commercial Director and Partner at Foodcom S.A.

Global Foodcom S.A. reports.

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