Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are affecting harvests and could drive up food prices

Fertilizer shortages and higher fuel prices are driving up farming costs

Disruptions to maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to affect global agriculture. Problems with fertilizer supplies, rising fuel prices, and higher transportation costs are driving up food production costs. The situation is further exacerbated by the effects of El Niño and disruptions to wheat supplies from the Black Sea region.

Prices for agricultural commodities rose by 13% in the third quarter of 2026, and further increases are expected at the end of the year and in early 2027. Initially, available stocks of fertilizers and fuel helped mitigate the effects of these disruptions. However, the prolonged disruptions are prompting farmers to reduce fertilizer use and plan their planting more cautiously. The costs of harvesting using agricultural machinery are also rising.

Lower crop yields could lead to higher food prices

Long-term supply problems could particularly affect countries that rely on imports of fertilizers, fuels, and food. Parts of Asia and Africa may face serious food shortages if rules governing the transport of fertilizers through the Strait of Hormuz are not agreed upon in the coming weeks. Southeast Asia is particularly vulnerable to rising fuel costs, while the Gulf states are heavily dependent on food imports.

Prolonged uncertainty may also affect crop choices. Farmers operating smaller farms may abandon more profitable crops—which require a longer wait for revenue—in favor of those that generate income more quickly. Combined with reduced fertilizer use, this could lead to lower yields and a further rise in food prices.