Coffee market overview 2026 [Global Report]

The year 2025 marks a clear turning point for the global coffee market. After two years of severe weather disturbances, record price increases and tight supply, the market is entering a phase of gradual clean-up, although this does not mean a return to the old realities. Price levels for both Arabica and Robusta remain well above the averages of the last decade, and the structural challenges of climate change, rising production costs and pressure for transparency are becoming an enduring feature of the industry. At the same time, consumption continues to grow and the premium and speciality segments are gaining ground at a rate the scale of which would have been difficult to predict just a few years ago. This report presents the current market situation in 2025 and the forecasts and trends that will shape the global coffee sector in 2026.

Global coffee market analysis

The global coffee market remains tight in 2025, although far more stable than during the height of the turmoil in 2024. Supply constraints in Latin America, due to drought, excess rainfall and an erratic flowering cycle, have pushed stocks in importing countries to extremely low levels. Although production is forecast to recover in 2025/2026, estimated to increase by around 2.5%, the market continues to operate in an environment of significantly higher prices. In contrast, demand for coffee remains exceptionally strong. Global consumption is expected to exceed 169-170 million bags in 2025/2026, continuing a multi-year upward trend driven by both a growing middle class in Asia and the continued premiumisation of developed markets.

In parallel, genre segmentation is deepening. Arabica, the cornerstone of the speciality and premium coffee segments, continues to show high sensitivity to weather anomalies, limiting the pace of supply recovery in Brazil, Colombia and the Andean countries. Robusta, on the other hand, is consolidating its position as a more resilient variety – increased production in Vietnam, Indonesia and India, as well as in Africa, is easing pressure on the industrial segments, but at the same time influencing changes in blend formulations. High raw material prices are prompting some producers to increase the proportion of Robusta, while consumers of premium products increasingly expect single-origin coffees, micro-roots, high-root varieties or experimental treatments.

Transparency of origin and traceability are becoming fundamental to the functioning of the market. Importers and roasters require full documentation of the supply chain – from geolocation of plantations to evidence of environmental and social compliance. The role of certification is growing, but traceability systems, which allow the source of each batch to be documented, are gaining even faster momentum. This shifts the burden of responsibility to producers and co-operatives, forcing investment in technology and process modernisation.

Regional analysis of the coffee market

The structure of the market varies significantly from region to region, not only in terms of supply profile and crop quality, but also in terms of consumption dynamics, cost pressures, regulatory requirements and the extent to which premium and speciality segments have developed

Latin America

Latin America remains the centre of global Arabica production and, at the same time, the region most exposed to the effects of climate change. Brazil, the largest coffee producer, is rebuilding plantations in 2025 after previous periods of drought and frost, but crop cyclicality remains severely disrupted. Colombia is struggling with agronomic problems and lower productivity, while Peru, Honduras and Nicaragua are stepping up investment in the speciality segment. The region is also a leader in the development of micro-roots and premium coffees, thus benefiting from the growing interest in developed markets in single-origin coffees. At the same time, rising labour, fertiliser and transport costs remain a challenge, keeping pressure on prices.

Africa

Africa remains one of the most diverse regions in terms of sensory profiles and varieties. Ethiopia and Kenya are defining the premium coffee segment with distinctive aromas and high prices, while Uganda, Tanzania and Cameroon are strengthening their position in Robusta production. In 2025, the region faces limited logistical and financial infrastructure, which affects the cost of exports, but local co-operatives and certification schemes are developing increasingly efficiently. Investment in traceability is also growing, driven by demand from Europe and North America.

Asia and the Pacific

Asia plays a key role in the global supply of Robusta. Vietnam and Indonesia are increasing acreage planted, supported by growing demand for resistant and price-stable varieties. At the same time, the Arabica segment is growing in Laos, North Vietnam and the Philippines, where investment in agroforestry is helping to increase the quality and environmental compatibility of production. Asia is also the fastest growing consumer market. In China and India, coffee is becoming a lifestyle item and the RTD segment is growing by double digits. Consumption styles are shifting towards premium products and artisanal coffees.

Europe

Europe remains the global centre for premium coffee processing and the region with the highest traceability requirements. In 2025, European retail is consistently raising standards for documentation of origin, environmental and social certification and full traceability. Consumers are opting for premium, single-origin and speciality coffees, and local roasters are growing at a rate accelerated by the e-commerce channel. Europe is setting global regulatory and quality trends that affect the entire supply chain.

North America

North America is one of the most profitable coffee markets, where the speciality and functional coffee segments are growing particularly strongly. Consumers are increasingly opting for premium products, and the growing interest in coffees with precisely defined terroir is reinforcing the demand for high-quality Arabica. At the same time, the market is demanding increasingly sophisticated environmental and social documentation from suppliers, further raising expectations of transparency.

Trends and forecasts for 2026

The most important trend for 2026 remains a gradual but limited recovery in supply. Global production is forecast to increase by around 2.5% y-o-y, but even this increase does not change the fact that demand will reach historical levels of 169-170 million bags. This means the market will remain highly sensitive to weather disturbances. Prices, which reached multi-year highs in 2024 and 2025, may correct, but there is no reason to expect a return to the levels of a few years ago. Robusta, whose production is growing faster than Arabica, will continue to gain share in the bulk segments, while Arabica will remain key to the growing premium and speciality segments.

In 2026, the importance of full traceability throughout the supply chain will be reinforced. Transparency of origin will become standard not only in the premium segment, but also in the mainstream. At the same time, professionalisation is growing in countries of origin, which are increasingly investing in local processing, roasted coffee exports and the development of national brands. The market is also shifting towards long-term sourcing relationships, as weather turbulence and structural constraints force more stable cooperation models between importers and producers.

The most important, and still underestimated, factor shaping the coffee market is the sustained decline in production potential in traditional growing regions. Even if 2026 brings a recovery in yields, the global system is becoming increasingly vulnerable to shocks. This is not because of exceptional weather events, but because of long-term shifting climatic zones and the rising cost of plantation rehabilitation. In practice, this means that coffee supply will increasingly rarely keep pace with rising demand, and even small weather anomalies can generate sharp price reactions. The market is entering an era of chronic vulnerability, in which long-term stability no longer depends on a single season, but on the ability of the entire industry to adapt, through new varieties, shifting production to higher altitudes and investing in more resilient growing systems.”

William Peberdy

International Commodity Trader

Global Reports from Foodcom S.A.

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