- Ukraine’s grain and oilseed harvest could increase to 84.6 million tonnes.
- Potential exports in the 2026/2027 season could reach around 52 million tonnes.
- Corn and wheat are expected to remain the most important products in Ukraine’s foreign sales.
- The implementation of this scenario will depend on port capacity and the efficiency of land transport corridors.
Higher harvests could lead to increased exports
Cereal and oilseed production in Ukraine could reach 84.6 million metric tons in 2026. With harvests at this level, the country could export approximately 52 million metric tons of agricultural commodities during the 2026–2027 season. However, the realization of this scenario will depend on the logistical situation, including port capacity and the ability to efficiently transport goods by land.
A greater presence of Ukrainian grain on foreign markets could affect the supply balance in Central and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region. The scale of corn and wheat shipments will be of particular importance, as these remain the most significant items in Ukraine’s grain exports.
Corn and wheat will dominate the harvest
The corn harvest may exceed 32 million metric tons, of which approximately 27 million metric tons could be exported. For wheat, production is estimated at nearly 23 million metric tons, with potential foreign sales volume at around 17 million metric tons.
Barley, sunflower, rapeseed, and soybeans will also continue to play a significant role in the harvest mix. Some of the oilseeds will likely be processed by Ukrainian processing plants. This may limit exports of the seeds themselves while increasing the supply of oils and other processed products. For the market, factors such as transportation costs, the availability of specific raw materials, and the pace at which they enter the market will therefore remain just as important as the size of the harvest.
