Overview and analysis of the chocolate market in 2025 [Global Report]

The rise in cocoa prices to record levels in 2024 has shaken up the global chocolate market. The raw material crisis, climate change and rising consumer expectations have forced the industry to adapt at an accelerated pace. In this report, we analyse the key changes, challenges and developments that will define the market in 2025.

Global chocolate market analysis 2024

The year 2024 has proven to be a turning point for the global chocolate market. Cocoa – the foundation of the entire industry – reached historically high prices, surpassing USD 10,000 per tonne in the spring (data: ICE Futures Europe), almost quadrupling from the averages of 2021-2022. Such a sharp jump in the cost of the raw material threw the entire supply chain off balance, forcing producers to make difficult decisions: cutting production, changing recipes and seeking cheaper substitutes.

The source of the crisis was primarily the situation in West Africa – a region accounting for more than 70% of the world’s cocoa supply. Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which together account for around 60% of world production, saw yields fall by 35% and 34% year-on-year respectively (ICCO, January 2024). Droughts, weather anomalies and plant diseases have destroyed a significant proportion of plantations, while logistical disruptions and lack of access to crop protection products have only exacerbated the problem.

Despite price spikes, global demand did not fall immediately. Chocolate consumption remained strong, although in the US, for example, chocolate bar sales declined in the first half of the year (NIQ, 2024). In response to rising costs, manufacturers – especially in the economy segment – acted quickly: they reduced grammages, changed compositions without explicitly changing labels and increasingly turned to cheaper toppings or additives such as carob. This often meant a compromise between quality and profitability, but allowed them to maintain their market presence.

In the premium segment, reformulations were defended against, but there were tensions there too – production of bestsellers was reduced and distribution was managed more selectively. Even the most prestigious brands did not escape cost pressures.

The most profound change, however, has been on the consumer side. Chocolate, hitherto regarded as an everyday pleasure, began to be seen as an optional good. In markets with lower purchasing power, consumers were more likely to forgo purchases or turn to cheaper substitutes. This is a clear signal that the market is entering a new phase: less predictable, more strongly differentiated and much more sensitive to raw material prices.

Regional analysis of the chocolate market (2024 – Q1 2025)

Europe

Europe remains the largest chocolate market in the world, accounting for around 50% of global sales. Despite the historic rise in cocoa prices – which have tripled in two years due to adverse weather conditions and crop disease in West Africa – European consumers show strong loyalty to chocolate. Companies such as Mondelez, with 60% of chocolate sales in Europe, have maintained stable sales volumes despite higher prices, thanks to chocolate being seen as an everyday food item rather than an impulse purchase.

North America

In the US, which accounts for around 25% of global chocolate sales, consumers are more price-sensitive. An increase in the cost of cocoa of around 86% compared to the previous year has depressed demand. In addition, the growing popularity of GLP-1 drugs, which suppress appetite, and changing eating habits are contributing to the decline in confectionery consumption. Companies such as Hershey, with 87% of sales concentrated in the US, saw a greater decline in profits compared to companies with a stronger presence in Europe.

Asia Pacific

The Asia-Pacific region is experiencing strong growth in the chocolate market, driven by increasing interest in premium and health products. Countries such as China, India and Japan are seeing an increase in demand for organic, sugar-free and functional chocolates containing adaptogens or probiotics. Product innovations such as chocolates with superfoods respond to changing consumer preferences.

Africa and the Middle East

In Latin America, particularly Brazil and Mexico, the chocolate market is growing due to a growing middle class and increased access to premium products. In the Middle East, products such as ‘Dubai chocolate‘, combining local flavours with chocolate, are gaining popularity thanks to social media and unique flavour profiles.

2025 – trends and forecasts in the chocolate market

The year 2025 began for the chocolate market in the shadow of record cocoa prices. The raw material surpassed USD 10 500 per tonne in Q1, keeping cost pressures high across the value chain. Despite this, the outlook is not unequivocally pessimistic – the market is not about to give up on chocolate, but is changing the way it is produced, positioned and consumed.

Cocoa price forecasts

Analysts predict that cocoa prices will remain at USD 9 000-11 000 per tonne in 2025, depending on weather conditions in West Africa and global supply. The baseline scenarios assume moderate stabilisation after H1, although the risk of further climate disruption remains real.

Growing role of commodity alternatives

In response to more expensive cocoa, producers are intensifying product reformulation. Partial substitutes – such as carob, chickpeas or cereal blends – are increasingly being used. Although this mainly applies to mass products, more and more solutions are also appearing in the functional and vegan segments. In the background, work is also underway on so-called laboratory chocolate, which could in future make the market independent of changing climatic conditions.

Consumption: less but better

Consumers, especially in Europe and Japan, are reaching for chocolate less often, but are choosing better quality products – organic, short-form, premium. The segment of functional chocolates, e.g. for immunity or mood support, is also experiencing growth, opening the way for companies to enter new categories: healthy snacks and nutraceuticals.

Emerging markets: investment and diversification

Latin America, India and ASEAN countries are becoming targets for new investment – both in manufacturing and processing. The growth of local consumption is driving the development of smaller national brands, which are increasingly competing not only on price, but also on quality and local identity. This phenomenon is likely to undermine the dominance of the largest players in the long term.

Sustainability – from exception to standard

Certification, raw material traceability, carbon footprint reduction and ethical production are no longer an option – they are becoming a requirement. Consumers expect full transparency and new regulations, especially in the EU, formalise these expectations. For producers, this is not only a challenge, but also an opportunity to stand out – especially in the premium segment.

– Marcin Stradowski, Commercial Director and Partner at Foodcom S.A.

Foodcom S.A. global reports.

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