Cocoa prices are falling, but smaller harvests could change the market situation

Higher inventories are driving down cocoa prices

In early November, cocoa is significantly cheaper than it was a month earlier. On November 4, the benchmark price stood at $5,456 per metric ton, marking a 7% decline on a monthly basis. One reason for this is rising exchange inventories, which reached their highest level in two and a half years at the end of October.

At the same time, forecasts for the coming season point to the possibility of a significantly smaller harvest. Global cocoa production in the 2026/2027 season could fall by 9.6%, to approximately 4.74 million metric tons. In such a scenario, the current surplus of raw cocoa could give way to a shortage estimated at 64,000 metric tons.

Weather in West Africa could affect future harvests

In Ghana, the start of the season brought significantly smaller harvests than the previous year. Heavy rains in some regions and prolonged droughts in others hindered the development of cocoa pods. Earlier forecasts predicted a decline in production in that country of at least 16%. In Côte d’Ivoire, rainfall was also below average, though conditions so far have allowed the current harvest to continue.

Farmers in Ghana are hoping for an improvement in the situation in March 2027, but much depends on the weather in the coming months. The dry harmattan winds remain a particular threat, as they could further damage crops. If production turns out to be lower than expected, the current decline in cocoa prices may not last long.