Global Report: Coffee Market Overview 2024

The global coffee market in 2024 is at the centre of a transformation triggered by climate change, economic pressures and shifts in consumer preferences. The sector, considered stable for decades, has faced the need to adapt to new conditions that are shaping both supply and demand in global markets.

Droughts in Brazil and excessive rainfall in Colombia have curtailed production, translating into higher prices and falling stocks in consumer countries. Arabica production in Brazil fell 12% to 38 million bags, while robusta saw prices rise to a record US$5,694 per tonne on the European market. Arabica contracts on the ICE Futures exchange reached their highest levels in 15 years, averaging US$3.44 per pound.

The year 2024 can be considered a transitional moment that will define the future of coffee in terms of production, trade and consumption. Faced with challenges that are changing the structure of the market, the question is: will the coffee sector adapt to the new realities or will it become an example of a permanent crisis in the global commodity market?

Global coffee market analysis 2024

Coffee production has been affected by both climatic disruptions and changing farmer strategies. Faced with extreme weather conditions such as droughts and excessive rainfall, many regions struggled with lower yields. Droughts in South America have reduced the arabica harvest, which has echoed through the markets, driving up prices. At the same time, robusta, a staple of instant coffees, has become the subject of intense competition for supply – not only because of its more affordable price, but also the limited availability resulting from farmers in Asia deciding to abandon less profitable crops.

Advancing technology, such as artificial intelligence-based plantation monitoring systems, is beginning to play an increasingly important role, although this is still the privilege of large producers. Smaller farms, particularly in Africa and Latin America, continue to struggle with the high costs of implementation, perpetuating inequalities in the global supply chain. Uganda, Africa’s largest producer of robusta, saw a 3% increase in exports, partially offsetting shortages in Asia.

The new face of consumption

Demand for coffee has remained stable, but the way consumers reach for the product has undergone a dynamic transformation in 2024. Speciality coffee – distinguished by unique flavour profiles, precise provenance and transparency in production – has ceased to be a niche product, becoming a standard in many developed markets. Consumption of speciality coffees in Europe grew by 5%, and the organic speciality coffee segment recorded 8% growth in North America.

At the same time, the growth of the RTD (ready-to-drink) segment is changing the way coffee is consumed to become more spontaneous and convenient. RTD beverage sales in China grew by 25% and in the US by 12%. Products such as cold brew or functional coffees (enriched with adaptogens or health ingredients) are setting new directions for the market. Driven by the younger generations, this trend is also finding increasing adoption in developing countries, where coffee consumption is no longer a luxury but is becoming a symbol of a modern lifestyle.

Trading in times of fluctuation

2024 brought some of the biggest price fluctuations in recent decades. The International Coffee Organisation (ICO) price index rose to 299.61 US cents per pound, the highest level since the 1970s. Coffee stocks in Europe fell to a level equivalent to two months of consumption, increasing pressure on importers and raising retail prices across the region by 4%.

Major trade routes, such as exports from Latin America to Europe, remained key, but there is an increasing focus on alternative suppliers, particularly in Africa. The continent is beginning to play an increasing role in the supply of robusta to Asian countries, where demand for instant coffee continues to grow.

Major players in the coffee market

In 2024, the global coffee market has been driven by leaders such as Nestlé SA, Jacobs Douwe Egberts BV, Tata Coffee Limited and PepsiCo Inc. who have been developing specialty coffee and RTD product segments in response to growing consumer demands. These companies have also invested in sustainability and innovation in their supply chains.

Foodcom S.A. stood out as a supplier of high quality coffee and a key trading partner. With efficient distribution networks and sound market analysis, it supported stability in the face of price and supply volatility.

Companies such as Illycaffè SpA and Massimo Zanetti Beverage Group dominated the premium coffee segment, while innovators such as Slingshot Coffee Co. redefined trends in the RTD sector, pointing the way forward for the market.

Trends that defined 2024

The popularity of premium coffees, such as single-origin and organic, showed that consumers were willing to pay more for quality and authenticity. Sustainability, once seen as an added value, has become a standard, especially in developed markets where products without ethical certification are losing their appeal. The rise of alternative coffee drinks, such as cold brew and canned lattes, has attracted younger generations, redefining the way coffee is consumed.

Regional analysis of the coffee market in 2024

In 2024, the global coffee market was characterised by significant regional differences due to unique challenges and opportunities in different parts of the world.

Latin America

Latin America, accounting for a significant portion of global coffee production, faced a variety of challenges in 2024:

• Brazil: as the world’s largest coffee producer, Brazil saw its production decline by 10% compared to the previous year, mainly due to adverse climatic conditions such as drought and frost. This affected global coffee prices, which reached their highest level in a decade.
• Colombia: Coffee production in Colombia decreased by 5% due to excessive rainfall, which affected the quality of the beans. Colombian exporters faced the challenge of remaining competitive in the international market, especially in the face of rising production costs.
• Peru: Peru increased organic coffee exports by 8%, responding to growing demand for organic products in European and North American markets. The country has invested in certification and quality improvement to differentiate itself from the competition

North America

North America has seen significant changes in consumer preferences:

• United States: Consumers increasingly opted for speciality coffees and ready-to-drink (RTD) products such as cold brew. Sales of RTD coffees increased by 12% year-on-year, indicating the growing popularity of convenient forms of consumption.
• Canada: Canadian consumers showed growing interest in sustainable certified products, prompting many producers to adapt their offerings. Sales of organic coffees increased by 7% and speciality coffees by 5%.

Europe

Europe, which is one of the largest markets for coffee consumption, maintained stable consumption levels despite rising prices:

• Western Europe: Countries such as Germany, France and Italy saw a slight decline in coffee consumption of 2%, mainly due to rising raw material prices. Despite this, the speciality coffee segment continued to grow, with a 5% increase in sales compared to the previous year.
• Eastern Europe: Countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic saw a 4% increase in coffee consumption, driven by a growing middle class and the development of coffee shop culture. Instant coffees remain popular, but the premium coffee segment is gaining ground.

Asia Pacific

The Asia-Pacific region has become one of the fastest growing coffee markets:

• China: coffee consumption grew by 15%, driven by younger generations and the expansion of coffee shop chains. RTD products have grown in popularity, accounting for 25% of the country’s coffee market.
• India: the coffee market in India saw 10% growth, with increasing demand for speciality coffees in major cities. Coffee culture is becoming more common, especially among younger consumers.
• South Korea: South Korea maintained high coffee consumption at 3.1 kg per person per year, with growing interest in premium and speciality coffees. Coffee shop culture remains an integral part of social life.

Africa

As the cradle of coffee, Africa continues to develop its production potential:

• Ethiopia: coffee production increased by 5%, with a focus on exporting speciality coffees. The country has invested in improving the quality and certification of its products to meet.

2025: stabilisation or further challenges?

The global coffee market in 2025 will reflect the complex processes that have taken place in previous years. Climate challenges, changing consumer preferences and technological developments will determine the directions in which the sector will go.

Production in the face of climate change and innovation

Coffee production in 2025 will depend heavily on the ability of key regions to adapt in the face of challenging climatic conditions. El Niño, which affected yields in Latin America in 2024, could still play a key role, particularly in Brazil, Colombia and Peru. In Brazil, production is expected to rebound moderately, provided the rainfall forecasts prove accurate. However, even with stabilising weather conditions, producers face pressure from rising labour and fertiliser costs.

At the same time, the introduction of technologies such as precision farming and real-time crop monitoring systems could help improve production efficiency in countries such as Vietnam and Colombia. New coffee varieties that are more resistant to drought and disease are beginning to be used more widely, but their full potential requires further investment and time.

Consumption

In consumer markets, 2025 could prove to be another step towards personalising the coffee experience. Speciality coffees, distinguished by their unique origin and flavour profile, will continue to grow in popularity, particularly in developed countries. Generation Z and Millenials, who see coffee as an expression of their lifestyle, will drive this segment. Countries such as Germany, Canada and Japan will become leaders in the consumption of premium products.

At the same time, the ready-to-drink (RTD) segment – including cold brew and functional coffees enriched with adaptogens – will grow rapidly, responding to the needs of consumers looking for convenient and healthy solutions. In Asia, particularly in China and South Korea, RTD beverages could become an important part of the expansion of local and global coffee brands.

Trade and pricing

In the trade market, coffee prices are expected to partially stabilise after record highs in 2024. If production in Brazil and Vietnam increases as forecast, global prices could reach more predictable levels, although they will still remain higher than the averages of the past decade. The International Coffee Organisation (ICO) forecasts that average arabica prices will remain in the 280-310 cents per pound range, while robusta will remain slightly more stable due to this segment’s lower sensitivity to weather changes.

Geopolitics, however, may play an important role in shaping trade flows. Sustainability regulations in the European Union may reduce coffee imports from deforestation-prone regions such as Brazil, forcing exporters to adapt their practices. At the same time, trade tensions between the US and China could trigger changes in export destinations, particularly in Asia and Latin America.

Innovation across the value chain

The introduction of blockchain technology in the supply chain will provide greater transparency and consumer trust, especially in the premium segment. Consumers will be able to trace the origin of their coffee from plantation to cup, which will become a key element in building loyalty.

Automation of processes, such as harvesting and sorting of beans, will start to be implemented on a larger scale in countries such as Brazil and Vietnam, helping to reduce production costs and increase efficiency. At the same time, in Europe and North America, the development of e-commerce platforms will facilitate access to a wide range of coffee products, supporting the further development of small, independent roasters.

Projections for 2025 show a continuation of the trends seen in previous years, but with a greater emphasis on innovation and adaptation. Sustainability will become not only a consumer expectation, but also a business imperative for producers and exporters. Despite the challenges of climate and geopolitics, the coffee sector seems poised for stability, supported by technology and new commercial strategies.

Global Reports from Foodcom S.A.

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